**UPDATE**
While I was pondering how to get my speedo to indicate the correct MPH, Murphy's Law struck hard. The speedometer died entirely!
It's back up and running, and I can share some info that may be helpful to somebody, someday.
1. The 2nd Gen Camry speedo cable is IN TWO SECTIONS. I seriously want to travel to Japan, find the retired engineer who put this feature in the car, and buy him dinner. This made the repair INCREDIBLY more easy. If the lower section is at fault, there's no need to pull the upper cable from behind the instrument cluster. It's all done under the hood.
Turns out my problem was the lower cable. The connection had been put on incorrectly (when the clutch was done??) and the connector rusted in place. The "key" on the shaft was worn completely off (visible in picture below).
2. The speedo drive gear is the same ratio in both A/T and M/T Camrys. However, the design is completely different (note M/T drive gear at top, A/T drive gear on bottom)
The auto version is somewhat easy to get to; the manual is a real pain. I pulled both from the junkyard today for comparison. Spline count is the same.
The drive gear is held in place by one 10mm bolt. The bolt holds a small key that pops off once you remove the bolt. Rock the unit back and forth with pliers while putting some pulling force on the unit and it will wiggle out. For the manual, I had to do this from under the car, snaking my arm around the exhaust.
Still haven't found out why my speedo is off, but nice to eliminate one possible factor.