Went ahead and replaced just the bad one with a Sealed Power brand bearing from O'Reilly. It went in pretty easily, for which I was thankful. The others were a different story - the top halves were pretty tight fitting, and were hard to move. All of the clearances checked out within spec, so i just left them.
The paperclip trick sounds pretty clever. I'd be kind of worried about it breaking off inside of the oil hole though

The main problem I encountered was initially getting the bearing into the space between the crank journal and the block. After that, it slid in pretty easily just by pushing with my finger.
Yea, it occurred to me earlier that an overtightened drive belt was probably the cause. This is supported by the fact that the top half of the bearing is in even worse condition than the bottom half. I see now where all of those shavings came from

I'm definitely going to start using a tension gauge now . . . It certainly didn't occur to me that it was this crucial.
By the way, how do I use a power drill to vary the oil pressure? I was just going to remove the spark plugs and spin the crank.