Hybrid Hype Breakdown - you might be suprized

[Birddog]

I was looking at an 07 Camry Hybrid - until I did the math. The two LE's I was looking at (Gas vs. Hybrid) were about $7,000 different in price. The gas model was about $22K and the Hybrid was 29K. Going off a stated average MPG of 30 for the gas "guzzling" I4 and 40 MPG for the "super efficient" Hybrid. I wondered how long it would take to pay back that $7K with the gas "savings".

To get this calculation to work out correctly, some assumptions needed to be made. I assumed that the car would be driven 40 miles per day, 356 a year, in all traffic situations. I assumed that gas would remain at and average of $3 a gallon, and that there were no maintenance costs associated with each car. I also assumed that there would be a 5 year 7% interest loan on the car which turns that $7K into a hefty $8300.

Here is where the hype gets lost... It would take 23 years to break even driving with the hybrid to reach the break even point. at this time, the car would have 233,000 miles on it...anyone else still want to buy one?

(I also did the difference in mileage between the V6 and teh I4 - its .23 cents more per day to own the V6...worth it in my eyes...)

[secrecyguy]

Keep in mind, the batteries are expensive to replace in there.

[Yazovets]

Interesting calculation - it does not surprise me at all. Several months ago I was looking up the Mercedes ML-Class SUVs for the family.

And I went to compare the diesel one (ML320 CDI) versus the ML350 (V6) and ML500 (V8). What I found was that the benefits of the "more efficient" diesel wouldn't be seen at all during the time life planned for this vehicle. In other words, we try to keep our cars for between 2 and 5 years in the family.

So the savings certainly can't come even within those 5 years - especially if you drive the SUV for just about 100 days of the year.

Going back to the Camry Hybrid: I think the only positive thing about it is the low emissions. Lots of people confuse emissions with fuel efficiency. So other than releasing less harmful stuff in the air, there really is no reason for a greater initial cost, sacrifice of performance and trunk cargo. But that's just my opinion. Hybrid owners clearly have different priorities, and by their views, the TCH meets them well enough.

[Epsilon]

Glad I chose a gas guzzling Camry.

[ASG14]

Ok, so let me get this right. Your comparing an LE to a Hybrid, when in fact, it should be compared to a near loaded XLE, and still has more power then the 2AZ-FE I4?



It;s like Comparing a Camry to an ES350, and saying the ES350 is a ripoff cause it "costs more".

Originally Posted by Birddog

I was looking at an 07 Camry Hybrid - until I did the math. The two LE's I was looking at (Gas vs. Hybrid) were about $7,000 different in price. The gas model was about $22K and the Hybrid was 29K.

And if your going to even compare these, you can at LEAST get a base price of one.

Year Make Model Trim
2007 Toyota Camry Hybrid Hybrid 4dr Sedan (2.4L 4cyl gas/electric hybrid CVT)

Stock Number MSRP A1 Best Price
49237 $27,049.00 Please Call

[EnderSavesTheDa]

that's been calculated a long time ago, driving hybrids are more of a green thing

[Epsilon]

And for people who care about the environment.

[njerald]

Originally Posted by Epsilon

And for people who care about the environment.

Not really!!!!!!!!!

http://cnwmr.com/nss-folder/automoti...Commentary.pdf

[rawknmxpx]

I actually did a spreadsheet of this for work to present to people who are thinking about getting a hybrid but are about to face a long summer of waiting lists... This way we can present them the numbers and if cost is more of a priority to them we can get them in a gas only camry...

All my calculations are done with gas at $3.12/gal and 15000 miles a year. The way i figured it, there's two ways to look at the numbers.... The time it takes for the fuel savings to overcome that initial premium you pay for the hybrid and the time it takes before the hybrid becomes less expensive overall...

I came up with 4.7 years to get over that initial premium for TCH, and 10.9 years before it ultimately becomes cheaper than a gas only camry...

There is a lot of environmental and political rationale for people wanting these cars in portland tho... it's become something of a trend. They pollute less but they also stick it to the oil companies by not paying them $563 more dollars than they normally would in a year. Instead that money goes to Toyota which is perceived to care more about the environment and the customer than oil companies. In reality they'll both destroy the earth in the endless pursuit for your money.

If someone wants to buy a car that really is low impact to the environment and really gives the finger to oil, gov't and autos... buy an electric car. Tesla has some damn cool stuff coming down the pipe and many others are to follow. Hybrids are a good temp solution for those with the cash to make the statement, but they aren't going to save you money until 5 years later when you're eyeballing that new car anyway.

enough narratives... geez...

[Epsilon]

Originally Posted by njerald

Not really!!!!!!!!!

http://cnwmr.com/nss-folder/automoti...Commentary.pdf

Good article. I wonder if the tree huggers know this.

[rawknmxpx]

Originally Posted by njerald

Not really!!!!!!!!!

http://cnwmr.com/nss-folder/automoti...Commentary.pdf

Someone has their expected lifespans a little out of whack to make their point. Does anyone believe a Prius is going to last ONLY 100k miles? Just because the battery warranty runs out doesn't mean it's a dead car. Does anyone believe a Hummer is going to come anywhere close to 300k? Kinda takes away any kind of credibility from that paragraph. And crash protection in a Hummer... you will need it. Because when it comes time to slam the brakes on that bad boy it's going to keep going and have the emergency handling of a jackknifed semi. and then it'll roll over. You'll need crash protection...


This COMMENTARY must be written by a senior citizen who still believes buying a car made in mexico with an american nameplate is still the best thing for his country. Yes... the manufacturing of batteries does have a negative effect on the environment. Yes... it probably could be done more efficiently... the next-gen Lithium batteries will probably be manufactuered in China, so less freight cost there. Oh and canada your economy just dipped another couple million. Bummer. I'm not going to argue that the xB isn't a better car (it is...). When some old lady forgets that we're not in england and hits me head on, i like my chances better with her in an xb. And when she sees my smiling SE grill with bright eyes glowing in her rear view mirror while cruising the left lane at a brisk 49 mph, i'd rather it was unobstructed by the flat rear glass of an xb.

Now... time to roadtrip to Bandon and smack some of my MR friends around... and hit up Salem on the way back to campaign for better elderly education.

[ASG14]

Originally Posted by rawknmxpx

If someone wants to buy a car that really is low impact to the environment and really gives the finger to oil, gov't and autos... buy an electric car. Tesla has some damn cool stuff coming down the pipe and many others are to follow.

The Tesla based on the Lotus has some AMAZING specs. I can't wait to see one on the road or at a car show.

Originally Posted by rawknmxpx

Someone has their expected lifespans a little out of whack to make their point. Does anyone believe a Prius is going to last ONLY 100k miles? Just because the battery warranty runs out doesn't mean it's a dead car. Does anyone believe a Hummer is going to come anywhere close to 300k? Kinda takes away any kind of credibility from that paragraph. And crash protection in a Hummer... you will need it. Because when it comes time to slam the brakes on that bad boy it's going to keep going and have the emergency handling of a jackknifed semi. and then it'll roll over. You'll need crash protection...

I've seen some Hybrids already rolling with over 200k and NO issues. these are online right now:

2003 Toyota Prius
Description — $8,995, Blue 4-door FWD Sedan, 157755 miles, AUTO, 1.5L I4. Stock# 972652. Features: Warranty, 5 Passenger Seating, Alloy ...

2002 Toyota Prius
Description — $8,995, Blue 4-door FWD Sedan, 146639 miles, 4 SPD AUTO W/ELEC, 4 Cylinders. Stock# 056283. Features: CARFAX CERTIFIED,

2002 Toyota Prius
Description — $9,988, Green 4-door FWD Sedan, 138600 miles, 4 SPD AUTO W/ELEC, 4 Cylinders. Stock# 2329. Features: ABS, Air Conditioning, ...

2002 Toyota Prius
Description — $11,995, Blue 4-door FWD Sedan, 138102 miles, AUTO, 1.5L I4. Stock# P24392A. Features: Power Windows,Power Door Locks,Cruise ...

2003 Toyota Prius Hybrid Sedan
Price $9,900
Body Style Sedan
Mileage 164,000

2001 Toyota Prius Hybrid
Price $8,995
Body Style Sedan
Mileage 145,158

[Mistabullet]

Did you count the tax break for hybrids? (Don't know if they still do this)
Also, did you make another scenario where gas prices rise instead of remaining $3.00 just to see the results?

[FlopShot]

Originally Posted by Mistabullet

Did you count the tax break for hybrids? (Don't know if they still do this)
Also, did you make another scenario where gas prices rise instead of remaining $3.00 just to see the results?

I was just about to state the same thing. I got a $2600 tax credit, which is cash in my pocket. Take that off my hybrid purchase price of my TCH. Then as another poster said, you can't compare a base hybrid to a base LE, heck you might as well compare it to a base CE then. You need to compare cars with comparable features. The TCH comes with all the standard features of an XLE + some (such as the push button start). All of those features would be options you need to pay for on an LE. So the true comparison is a base hybrid against a base XLE I4. When I included my $2600 tax credit, along with the fact that I drive 25k a year commuting to work, the hybrid was a no-brainer COMPARED TO BUYING AN XLE. If I was truly interested in buying a Camry and saving money without any care about the comfort of my ride, then I would have bought a CE.

It's true that you need to drive probably 100k miles before you break even and start to realize the cost savings of a hybrid against the comparable ICE version of the same car. I will not need to go 100k because of my tax credit, but even if I did, that is only 4 years for me, and then I start saving money. For other people, 100k might be 10 years so by then you are probably looking to buy another car, so then the hybrid doesn't make fiscal sense. But you people that don't EVER want to consider a hybrid car cost-feasible will come up with all kinds of invalid calculations and comparisons to try and prove your point.

[rawknmxpx]

Originally Posted by Mistabullet

Did you count the tax break for hybrids? (Don't know if they still do this)
Also, did you make another scenario where gas prices rise instead of remaining $3.00 just to see the results?

Forgot about the tax breaks... one more variable i should include on my little calculator... though by the end of september this year there will be no tax breaks for toyota hybrids. as it stands now TCH is only $650 while a prius is $788.

I also need to go back and decide whether to tweak for "comparable features" or not. The purpose of my spreadsheet is to target the "gas price conscious" buyer who is looking for something that will reduce their day to day vehicle cost and get them in a car today instead of putting their name on the hybrid waiting list... I'm thinking this buyer may not be interested in the xle features to begin with and if they could get a hybrid without them they would... I'll post a link to it if anyone is interested in playing with the numbers...