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That is probably a fair assumption. Only way to find out for sure is to backprobe the upstream and downstream O2 sensors and see if the signal waveforms look too much alike.
The P0420 code is set if the ECM measures waveforms that look nearly identical from the upstream (pre-cat) and downstream (post-cat) sensors. Assuming the sensors are working perfectly, the only possible culprit is a faulty catalytic converter. Possible culprits for setting the P0420 code, are bad O2 sensors, bad catalytic converter, exhaust leak, or faulty ECM.
Try resetting the code and drive normally. If the P0420 comes right back - investigate the problem further. Sometimes it isn't even related to the exhaust/emission components - as I've seen other people with a P0420 code, replace both O2 sensor, catalytic converter, and replace the entire exhaust still end up with a P0420 code. Turns out it was a engine coolant temperature switch that was bad. Each case will be a little different.
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2002 Corolla S, 1.8L 1ZZ-FE VVT-i
2003 Matrix XRS, 1.8L 2ZZ-GE, VVTL-i (RIP)
2009 Matrix XRS, 2.4L 2AZ-FE VVT-i
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