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Spot welding of sheets in the rear is the culprit of Wheel well water Leak.
I had the same problem. What aggravated me was that I live in Toronto. during winter, the spare tire couldn't be retrived in emergency, because water frozen all in the wheel well. I waiting for the 1st winter to be over. Then I did the following.
I removed the spare wheel. Painted the wheel well edges with a white marker paint. Let them dry. Whether I watered the car or let it sit in rain I don't remember correctly. However, I found that there were 3 spots water entered (where white paint was erased & residue ran down) the wheel well from the rear where the plate is.
Took the car to my Mechanic. This is a problem with Toyota spot welding. My mechanic removed the rubber lining. cleaned it. in the backwher it is spot welded, he used angle grider to shave a bit. Used auto sealer to fill the gap betwwen the metal sheets, put back the lining(the black lining. This was done a year ago.
I never had a water in the wheel well after this.
However, had problem of water uner the tool box in the trunk. When I did the krown rust protection, the guy misplaced the plug for this section. Therefore, it has the hole on the bottom, which drains the water.
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