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[engineer]

Actually, at second glance, I really dislike this analysis of "truck loyalty = successful launch". There are way too many variables and "apples to oranges" comparisons to make such a simple correlation. Here are a few points that come to mind:

1) The Tundra is (finally!!) a full-sized truck with full-sized capabilities, so who's to say all of those people that, years ago, swore off "domestic's" had to settle for a 3/4 size truck, and now (finally!!) have a true full size offering from Toyota to buy. February is the first month of the Tundra, so this huge spike would coincide with the "loyal" 3/4 size truck owners "upgrading" to a true 1/2 ton truck. . . .

2) GM sells trucks through 2 dealerships, GMC and Chevrolet, not one like Toyota (arguably a smarter move, but that is a discussion for another day). Would a Silverado buyer trading in on a Sierra (or visa versa) be considered an "un-loyal" buyer? They are both made by GM, and I have heard many, many people say they prefer the Sierra's looks to that of the Silverado. With the analysis method above, the Silverado "loyalty" numbers would go down if someone bought a Sierra. . . . .

3) The Silverado's have been out for several months now, and is settling in to it's normal sales pattern (it's actually up). I would like to see the same analysis for the Silverado in it's first month of sales. . . . . . I would bet we would see the same spike for Silverado-for-a-Silverado trade-in's that we see for the Tundra-for-a-Tundra. Also, I bet the average transaction prices would be higher as well (due to a new product, and the "gatta have it" factor).

4) What about those that trade in their Suburban, Tahoe, Avalanche, or other full size SUV for a truck. Those would not be counted, but I would still call these "loyal" customers.

5) People who purchased under the "GM Employee Price" (and there were a TON of them!!!) are only 18-19 months into their purchase or lease. GM basically killed their sales for 6-12 months because of this (stupid!!) sales incentive. So now GM is waiting on these people to pay off their car or finish their lease so they can buy another car or truck. Who's to say potential Silverado buyer are "waiting" for their leases to end (in another 16-17 months) so they can buy a new Silverado. Toyota does not have to wait for such customers due to their more disciplined incentives programs.


At any rate, there are a ton of variables that this analysis does not consider. The "loyalty" factor is only one piece of the pie (albeit a large one), but it, by no means, is the only factor to be looked at when deciding the "success" of a new product launch.

One thing is for sure, with the new Tundra in the mix, all manufactures will be fighting for every sale (which is great for the customer). . . . .