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I would try to get a look at a service manual. I'm not sure on your's but on a 22RE, the keyway on the crank needs to point straight up to be on TDC. I think I have a Celica manual in my truck. I will try to take a look at lunch and see what it says.
I would also recommend taking off the valve cover before you get too far into the belt. There is no sense in taking everything apart just to find out the distributor gear is broken. My bet is the belt though. You are right. If the belt is broken the rotor will not turn. I would also go ahead and change the belt and get it running before you decide to replace the motor. My daughter's 87 Celica GT has 180K on it and it still runs great.
You didn't mention how long it has been sitting. If it's only been sitting a couple of months then I wouldn't think there would be a lot of rust build up unless the motor were opended up. If it has been sitting for a year or more than that might be different. My guess would be that the belt may be broken and you were getting hing up on a piece of the belt when it bent around a certain way. After a few turns you may have change the position of the belt and dislodged it.
On the impact gun, I ouwl definately recommend using one as long as it fits in where you need it. Those crankshaft bolts can be a real PITA to break free.
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"The normal make a living. The deranged make history." -Christopher Titus
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