Although the quality gap is lower than before, difference will be made. The article is basically mostly GM/Ford executive interviews and they are saying STIFF/TOUGH things against the Tundra as expected...
Quote:
Toyota Motor Corp. has powered its way into almost every segment of the U.S. auto market, but the Japanese automaker could face its most difficult test as it tries to invade the full-size truck market.
Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and the Chrysler Group's Dodge brand have built strong loyalties among truck buyers, accounting for more than 90% of all U.S. full-size truck sales.
This is not the car market of the 1970s and '80s, where the domestic automakers failed to match Toyota in terms of quality, said Bob Lutz, head of GM's global product development and a former executive at Chrysler and Ford.
The Detroit brands have the upper hand in full-size trucks, he said.
"All the people who bought American full-size pickup trucks, regardless of manufacturer, or full-size sport-utilities are deliriously happy with their products," Lutz said. "The American truck owner -- Ford, Chevrolet, Dodge, GMC, it doesn't matter -- is intensely loyal and enormously satisfied with the truck."
As Toyota starts production Friday on a new Tundra, Detroit automakers had better hope Lutz is right, said Karl Brauer, editor-in-chief of the consumer Web site Edmunds.com, which named the Tundra the most significant vehicle of the year.
The Tundra, which will be made at a new plant in San Antonio, goes on sale in February. Toyota's first true full-size truck, the 2007 Tundra is a signal that Toyota is ready to compete head-on with the domestic automakers, Brauer said.
"I'm not saying that it's a matter of fact that the Japanese will take over the domestic truck market," Brauer said. "But I am saying that history has suggested that when they want to take over a market, they've been pretty effective at it."
In the past 30 years, Asian automakers have steadily gained market share in the United States at the expense of domestic automakers.
Led first by small fuel-efficient cars, Toyota, Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. have become key players in almost every market from minivans to luxury cars.
Toyota's Camry and Corolla are the two best-selling cars in the United States. Toyota and Honda trail only the Chrysler Group in minivan sales, and the Toyota-owned Lexus is the top-selling luxury brand.
The full-size truck market, though, is different, many industry experts say. Ford, GM and Dodge have a loyal customer base.
So far this year, Ford has sold 672,700 F-series trucks, making it the best-selling vehicle in the United States, according to Autodata Corp.
GM is second and fourth in full-size pickup sales with the Chevy Silverado and GMC Sierra at 539,300 and 177,800, through October. The Dodge Ram is third at 303,500.
Detroit's automakers are preparing for the increased competition. GM's new full-size pickups came out this year. Dodge has not formally announced a redesigned full-size truck, but a next-generation Ram should be coming within two years.
In announcing an acceleration of its Way Forward plan in September, Ford executives said a key part of their strategy is keeping the F-series as the leading full-size truck. And when customers trade in their Ford, GM and Dodge trucks, they often buy a newer version of the same truck.
Almost half of all people who traded in an F-Series this year bought another, according to statistics from the Power Information Network, an auto research arm of J.D. Power and Associates. Loyalty rates for the Dodge Ram and Chevy Silverado were slightly lower but still above 40%.
The Asian automakers' success in the full-size truck market so far has been limited. Honda has stayed out of the segment, opting to go with a midsize Ridgeline truck.
Toyota has competed for the past decade with a Tundra that's 7/8ths the size of other full-size trucks.
The Titan, Nissan's first full-size pickup, was introduced with great fanfare in 2004, but sales have been disappointing. The Titan and Tundra combined account for less than 10% of all U.S. full-size pickup sales.
Toyota will have a tough time taking customers away from Ford, GM and Dodge, said Joe Phillippi, a principal with AutoTrends Consulting in Short Hills, N.J.
"The competition has a tremendous reputation," Phillippi said. "They have strong loyalty among working-truck buyers. That's a tough thing to crack."
Ford, GM and Dodge also have a decided edge because their truck lineups offer a strong stable of features and options that the Asian automakers don't match.
The Detroit automakers offer special "heavy duty" versions of their trucks with optional diesel engines, special transmissions and reinforced frames. Toyota and Nissan have only the entry-level full-size trucks.
"If you look at the catalog for each of the Big Three, you can build anything you want in terms of a pickup," Phillippi said.
Although not considered a heavy-duty, the new Tundra appears to have strong capabilities, said Brauer of
Edmunds.com. The full specs have not been released but Toyota has shown the trucks to journalists and announced several variations for the cab and bed.
"Toyota totally expects people to use their truck as part of how they make a living," Brauer said.
It's also no coincidence that Toyota's new truck plant is in Texas, a move that could help it win over a large audience of hard-core truck buyers, said Erich Merkle, director of forecasting for Grand Rapids-based IRN Inc., a consulting firm.
"I don't think we can underestimate the fact that it's being made in Texas, which is the largest pickup market," Merkle said.
Such shrewd moves give Merkle confidence Toyota can a dent in the truck market.
"From a forecaster's perspective, I have a really hard time betting against Toyota," he said. "If I bet against them, I lose."
Great article. I totally agree...unlike cars where everyone especially back in the day know the domestics suck! So they turned to the true and tried Japanese brands. But trucks on the other hand...that's a different story. Okay I know Toyota has been making trucks for a long time but to my knowlege not "full-sized" ones at least the American definition of one. That's why this is such a big deal not only for Toyota but also the domestics...okay Toyota knows and most of us should know nothing is going to dramactically change instantly but in the long run that's what counts...from rumors or suggestions Toyota does plan on a HD version of the Tundra which will have a diesel, but I don't think that will come right away maybe two years down the road?? We'll see. Anyway Toyota can't have any recalls or major defects with this truck, I think that's why they have been delaying it, better safe than sorry method also not to rush it as it can set up potiental to "miss" some things that they should have looked at, referring to design of the truck, structrually, drivetrain etc. I have confidence in Toyota, okay I'm a fan and I'm on a Toyota site but beyond that, Toyota has proved and keeps proving itself in the market hence the market gains, so that helps in the perception of the Tundra cause people know the Toyota isn't some out of the woods company just starting to make cars/trucks but has been around and has established a fare share of customer loyalty. I agree to the point that truck customers are loyal but I've heard some horror stories with the domestic trucks but I know overall its been good cause otherwise they wouldn't be loyal right?? Not to say Toyota is perfect either...enough of my babble, just my .02 cents.
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It is a good article and balanced. This will be a hell of a battle but in fact there isn't much Toyota has to do to declare victory ( well a little bit ). Essentially it has to sell about 200K+ trucks each year with a max of say 300K units. This is from a current base of ~125K units into a market that approaches 2 Million units.
Even if Toyota succeeds and fills both plants at say 300K units the Tundra will still be 'only' the 5th nameplate and Ford and GM and Dodge will remain safe in 1,2,3 and 4th places. Everybody wins, it's just that each of the other 3 will have a smaller piece of the pie.
Numbers: There are about 1600 dealers in the US. To reach ~250K units each store should sell 'on average' 150 units a year or 13 units a month, as opposed to 6 units a month now. That doesn't seem like much of a task with such an amazing new product.
Great article. I totally agree...unlike cars where everyone especially back in the day know the domestics suck! So they turned to the true and tried Japanese brands.
Echo... Things are different now.. correct.. but may be only in the favor of TOYOTA
1) Toyota is a well known brand now with its exceptional quality.
2) There could be a lot of people ANXIOUSLY waiting out there for a competitive Toyota truck so they can escape the Ford or GM they might be unhappy with. You have to realize there are not many stubborn people out there (like a few on this board) and many people are willing to try new things and are open minded. People have more money today and they are more open minded.
3) A lot of "different" back grounds of people have migrated over since the 1970s and the 1980s. Although they may be way more loyal to the United States than us, when it comes to automobiles, many have tried Toyota one way or another in their country of origin. In Africa or Asia's developing nations, Toyota is very popular. There is no "automotive war" scenario going on at most places like it is in the United States and people are FREE to pick and choose what they want without harrasement by the Ford friends or embarassement that they may be declaring themselves DISLOYAL to their country.
4) Toyota's and now the TUNDRA will be made in the United States. In the 1970s and the 1980s Toyotas were not made here... Will that help? Fucking hell ...yea..... It willbe made in America by the Americans...
5) I don't remember seeing an actual official survey done in the United States where most of the truck owners stated that we would not switch.
6) The "back in the day" part is misleading because that was the 1970s and 1980s but the Toyota sales have been incrreasing steadily even in the 90s and the 00s so we just can't go back to the 70s and the 80s to analyze this.
Again.... so much speculation but only time will tell...
Nobody is saying it will win over night., SLOW AND STEADY WIN THE RACE...
wasn't the current tundra built in the US (Indiana?)? I seem to remember the T100 being built in Japan, though.
Either way, it's not a big issue.
My feelings: Toyota won't be able to outsell GM or Ford any time soon. However, making a significant dent will be a victory. The article says that currently Nissan + Toyota make up about 10% market share. If Toyota hits 10-15% market share with the Tundra in this generation, that will be a HUGE success. Heck, if they can hit 10% w/ the Tundra that'd be huge.
It's no lie, the Big 3 know how to build trucks. Outselling them at that will be a huge undertaking. Toyota isn't competiting against an array of "disorganized" products (take the mid-size sedan market...Malibu, Impala, Stratus, Fusion, Taurus, Five Hundred, etc). With so many players, it's easy to pick them off. When going up against a few powerhouses, it's much harder.
toyota knows it's about market share increases. I'm confident they'll get it, too. And while they steal a precious few % from the Big 3, they can put a whomping on the Titan
I'd be curious to see an actual survey that outlines how satisfied people are with their trucks. There seems to be a lot of hearsay coming from both sides.
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Echo... Things are different now.. correct.. but may be only in the favor of TOYOTA
1) Toyota is a well known brand now with its exceptional quality.
2) There could be a lot of people ANXIOUSLY waiting out there for a competitive Toyota truck so they can escape the Ford or GM they might be unhappy with. You have to realize there are not many stubborn people out there (like a few on this board) and many people are willing to try new things and are open minded. People have more money today and they are more open minded.
3) A lot of "different" back grounds of people have migrated over since the 1970s and the 1980s. Although they may be way more loyal to the United States than us, when it comes to automobiles, many have tried Toyota one way or another in their country of origin. In Africa or Asia's developing nations, Toyota is very popular. There is no "automotive war" scenario going on at most places like it is in the United States and people are FREE to pick and choose what they want without harrasement by the Ford friends or embarassement that they may be declaring themselves DISLOYAL to their country.
4) Toyota's and now the TUNDRA will be made in the United States. In the 1970s and the 1980s Toyotas were not made here... Will that help? Fucking hell ...yea..... It willbe made in America by the Americans...
5) I don't remember seeing an actual official survey done in the United States where most of the truck owners stated that we would not switch.
6) The "back in the day" part is misleading because that was the 1970s and 1980s but the Toyota sales have been incrreasing steadily even in the 90s and the 00s so we just can't go back to the 70s and the 80s to analyze this.
Again.... so much speculation but only time will tell...
Nobody is saying it will win over night., SLOW AND STEADY WIN THE RACE...
Sorry, I was kind of vauge on the "back in the day" but yeah I was referring to the 70's and 80's but I guess you can argue Toyota's entry into the U.S. market was and is to prove themselves as a viable option for people who don't want a domestic or fed up or just want to try something new. The part you mentioned how there are a lot of Toyota's in other countries particularly developing countries I agree and I think the harassment thing you were talking about with brand loyalty in other countries is not as evident as the U.S., my guess is the big three don't have as much as market there and from my understanding the U.S. is the largest auto market in the world but China is catching up. Most of Toyota's income is from the U.S. market not to say other markets aren't important, they are espeically emerging China but the U.S. is a key player.
Anyway you made some really good points and I agree!
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