TOKYO (Reuters) - Toyota will slash the price and size of its hybrid system by around half for the next-generation Prius model, and use a nickel-metal hydride battery instead of lithium-ion, a top executive said.
"When we went from the first-generation Prius to the second-generation, we did the same thing," Executive Vice President Kazuo Okamoto, in charge of Toyota's research and development, told reporters in Tokyo.
Toyota, the world's biggest automaker, has not publicly disclosed a timeframe for the introduction of the third-generation Prius model. Some media reports have speculated the planned late-2008 launch would be delayed because of concerns over the safety of lithium-ion batteries.
"I can't tell you when it will come to market, but the preparations are making steady progress," Okamoto said. He added that the next Prius would "definitely" use improved nickel-hydride batteries rather than higher-energy lithium-ion.
"Lithium-ion is going to take some time," he said.
hmm... so their cost is half... but how about the price retail?
Because I just can't see Toyota selling a $12k Prius.
I don't remember ever seeing a cost for Toyota's hybrid system. Tideland Prius, do you know the cost of the Hybrid Synergy Drive itself? And, then again, it is difficult to determine the price of the next generation Prius, since there is currently no regular, non-hybrid Prius to compare it to, like we can compare a regular Camry and the Camry Hybrid. All we can say is that the price difference between the next generation Camry and Camry Hybrid should be about half what the difference is now.
Let me start the discussion that I am sure toyotafanfan is predicting by starting this thread...
If the next generation Toyota hybrid system is still using the lower-density nickel-metal hydride battery, and not the higher-density lithium-ion battery, will it be trumped by the Chevrolet Volt? Will the next generation Prius offer the plug-in hybrid option, and if so, will the range be competitive with the Volt if it is not using a lithium-ion battery? Is Toyota being too conservative?
Toyota has had the reputation of being conservative, and has not always been the first out with the latest technology (5-speed automatic transmissions is one example). They have done well with this attitude, but will they lose out -- at least lose out in terms of customer perception -- if the Chevrolet Volt comes to market with lithium-ion batteries and a greater plug-in range than the next generation Prius?
Perhaps Toyota is being conservative -- again -- to ensure that the quality of the next Prius is not affected. Perhaps Toyota sees a possible further slip of its reputation for quality and reliability as a greater risk than selling a lithium-ion battery that they do not feel is ready for prime-time.
I don't remember ever seeing a cost for Toyota's hybrid system. Tideland Prius, do you know the cost of the Hybrid Synergy Drive itself? And, then again, it is difficult to determine the price of the next generation Prius, since there is currently no regular, non-hybrid Prius to compare it to, like we can compare a regular Camry and the Camry Hybrid. All we can say is that the price difference between the next generation Camry and Camry Hybrid should be about half what the difference is now.
Let me start the discussion that I am sure toyotafanfan is predicting by starting this thread...
If the next generation Toyota hybrid system is still using the lower-density nickel-metal hydride battery, and not the higher-density lithium-ion battery, will it be trumped by the Chevrolet Volt? Will the next generation Prius offer the plug-in hybrid option, and if so, will the range be competitive with the Volt if it is not using a lithium-ion battery? Is Toyota being too conservative?
Toyota has had the reputation of being conservative, and has not always been the first out with the latest technology (5-speed automatic transmissions is one example). They have done well with this attitude, but will they lose out -- at least lose out in terms of customer perception -- if the Chevrolet Volt comes to market with lithium-ion batteries and a greater plug-in range than the next generation Prius?
Perhaps Toyota is being conservative -- again -- to ensure that the quality of the next Prius is not affected. Perhaps Toyota sees a possible further slip of its reputation for quality and reliability as a greater risk than selling a lithium-ion battery that they do not feel is ready for prime-time.
Let the discussions start...
Back ground..Fan is certainly aware of this I'm sure as well.
When the first Prius was intro'd in mid 2000 it 'allegedly' was costing $35000 to make one and they sold for just over $20000 to a specialized hand picked clientele. I sold the first on in our region. In total I belive that they sold 5000 that first year. Now we approach the end of the 7th year. At the end of year six Toyota reached 1 million worldwide in all hybrids. By the end of this year it should be ~ 1.3 million.
Numbers:
A new vehicle such as the Prius costs about $1-$2 Billion to develop, design, test and prepare for market. Then production starts.
The ICE is a derived one so that is a minor expense.
The THS ( HSD ) is a new development to design and test as well. $1 Billion maybe.
The batteries 'retail' for about $3000 at a Parts store so at the OEM level say $2000. ( extra )
The HSD's also have two e-motors and wiring. ( extra )
They also have the PSD but no transmission ( wash )
The Camry, the Highlander/Harrier, Estima etc are all existing vehicle only needing modifications to become hybrids.
The Prius is just a semi-midsized hatch outside of the hybrid system, like the Matrix.
So in building a Prius one might say it's a Matrix with batteries, two motors, plus R&D. Assume that the Matrix with its ICE is profitable then the Prius ( including profit ) should have an MSRP of about...
$19000 .. vehicle production cost, profit, dealer fees, transport
+2000 .. batteries
+ 400 .. MG1/MG2
+2000 .. Vehicle R&D of $1.5 Billion divided by 750,000 units through 2006
+1000 .. THS system R&D of $1.0 Billion divided by 1,000,000 units total
=======
$24400 .. MSRP including profit and all amortizations.
BUT.......
Now that the R&D has been fully amortized on both the Prius and the THS those last two numbers ( $2000 & $1000 ) are pure profit...in addition to the profit already in the top number. Thus this past May Toyota offered the 'Eco Discounts' on the sticker of $600 to $2000.
These are my own round numbers for sure but from many reports in various places they seem to be in the right ballpark.
The hybrid components are 1/2 cost, not the whole car.
It's will still be a significant cost savings.
Fan
Since the bulk of the R&D on the THS is completed, the only new expense is the tweaking of the upgraded NiMH batteries. There might be an upgrade to the electric motors but not a huge extra cost. The new base engine might be an Atkinson 1.8L which is also a derived ICE. That's not a big expense.
Volume now is couple of orders of magnitude larger than originally forseen so the cost of production should be way way down.
A small amount of R&D compared to the first and 2nd Gen.
$300 Million (?) but divided over 500,000 units ( 2 yrs sales ) equals about $600 per unit
$1000 batteries at OEM cost rather than $2000?
$400 for 2 improved e-motors.?
Why would Toyota even consider doing that?
A $12,000 Prius?
That's just leaving money on the table.
There's no other carmaker in the world that has a viable hybrid system.
It's going to be like that for the next ten years.
Toyota might as well just milk the cash cow.
Number one I don't see the Prius being that cheap at least in the near future. It will canabolize sales of the Yaris and Corolla and undermind maybe other cars. Another is Toyota shouldn't pull a GM and rest on their laurels...that's what got GM in trouble (in the past). Toyota should always strive to do the best it can and hope its one of the best or the best at what it does and offers as far as being competitive on the market. Now that other automakers see how Toyota is successful with the marketing and selling of hybrids a thought mocked by the Americans and Germans they too are all racing to build their own versions. So no, Toyota shouldn't just rest because the rest are working hard at getting it better. Then you have hydrogen fuel cell powered cars...another area of competition, yes early in its stages but the future looks promising.
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U.S. media is a systematic censorship on free speech. They don't like what they hear they don't report. Don't want to upset the political and advertising sponsors. Its so corrupted. While they don't have to agree with certain views, its their job to report and let US decide.
I don't remember ever seeing a cost for Toyota's hybrid system. Tideland Prius, do you know the cost of the Hybrid Synergy Drive itself? And, then again, it is difficult to determine the price of the next generation Prius, since there is currently no regular, non-hybrid Prius to compare it to, like we can compare a regular Camry and the Camry Hybrid. All we can say is that the price difference between the next generation Camry and Camry Hybrid should be about half what the difference is now.
Let me start the discussion that I am sure toyotafanfan is predicting by starting this thread...
If the next generation Toyota hybrid system is still using the lower-density nickel-metal hydride battery, and not the higher-density lithium-ion battery, will it be trumped by the Chevrolet Volt? Will the next generation Prius offer the plug-in hybrid option, and if so, will the range be competitive with the Volt if it is not using a lithium-ion battery? Is Toyota being too conservative?
Toyota has had the reputation of being conservative, and has not always been the first out with the latest technology (5-speed automatic transmissions is one example). They have done well with this attitude, but will they lose out -- at least lose out in terms of customer perception -- if the Chevrolet Volt comes to market with lithium-ion batteries and a greater plug-in range than the next generation Prius?
Perhaps Toyota is being conservative -- again -- to ensure that the quality of the next Prius is not affected. Perhaps Toyota sees a possible further slip of its reputation for quality and reliability as a greater risk than selling a lithium-ion battery that they do not feel is ready for prime-time.
Let the discussions start...
Hi Sulu,
sorry for the late reply, I was on vacation.
I do not know the numbers for Toyota's R&D on their hybrid system.
All I know is that just a few months prior to the launch of the second generation Prius in 2003, they broke even and started making profit on the first generation. Now I do not know when they broke even and started making a profit on the second generation system as I have heard no news about it.
Consider that Toyota wanted to sell 36,000 and ended up selling > 40,000 in its first year, I think the second generation would definitely have broke even earlier (esp. now that the hybrid system is spread over more vehicles like the Camry, Highlander, RX, GS, LS, Estima and Alphard).
Just to add to kdhsypder's estimated costs, there's also the inverter cost. The inverter has shrunk considerably in size. Just look at the Prius' inverter (the big silver box) and look at the Camry's inverter (the small box with a black cover that looks like a battery). We can already see the improvements in the system.
That said, the cost reduction could also be assisted by selling the Lexus hybrids. In other words, sell the expensive GS and LS hybrids and use that profit to make the Prius more affordable and get more people into the hybrid fold.
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2010 Prius Technology Package (Cdn)
OEM Cargo Mat, OEM All-Weather Mat, LED ext/int lights, 5000K HID, OEM Fogs, Euro Mudguards
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