Could Toyota become #1 in the US?

[CheeseHead91182]

This article seems to think so

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/flowchar...les-champ.html

There's little doubt that Toyota will displace General Motors as the world's biggest automaker when 2008 sales are finally tallied. GM edged out its Japanese rival in 2007, but the American giant continues to struggle with a drawn-out turnaround plan and billions in losses. Toyota, by contrast, has been growing virtually everywhere it does business, with record profits in 2007. Ascending to No. 1 worldwide seems inevitable.

Now, here's a startling new possibility: Toyota could overtake GM in its home market, the first time ever that a foreign company would be the No. 1 seller of cars in the United States. Only a few months ago, that seemed implausible. Toyota's market share had grown consistently, to about 16 percent of the U.S. market at the end of 2007. But GM still had a commanding lead, with 23 percent of the market. And share swings of more than a point or two in a given year are rare.

But car sales this year have flipped more dramatically than anybody anticipated, and suddenly Toyota is within striking distance of GM. In May, Toyota's market share surged to 18.4 percent, according to J.D. Power & Associates, as buyers flocked to small, efficient cars like the Corolla, Yaris, and Scion xB. Sales of GM pickups and SUVs plummeted, leaving GM with 19.3 percent of the market—less than a single point above Toyota. And GM recently announced it will close four plants and curtail production of light trucks by about 40 percent. Those developments could reorder the U.S. auto industry. Some possible scenarios:

Toyota bounces GM. Toyota's sales have actually declined by 3.5 percent so far in 2007—but that's a strong performance compared with GM's 16 percent decline, which is why Toyota's market share is rising sharply. In May alone, the sales gap was much bigger: GM's sales plunged by 28 percent, compared with a mere 4.3 percent drop for Toyota. Like GM, Toyota is suffering from a severe drop in sales of big vehicles like the Tundra pickup and the 4Runner SUV. But GM is far more dependent on big vehicles, and Toyota has a much stronger lineup of small cars and crossovers.
If the pronounced shift in buying patterns continues, Toyota's market share could eclipse GM's on a monthly basis through the summer or fall. But GM will probably retain more market share for '08 overall, given that it started the year much stronger than it is now. As for 2009—that could be a close race.



GM rebounds. May was a wild month for car sales, with several developments that stunned analysts. Sales of big pickup trucks, for instance, fell below 10 percent of the total for the first time in decades. Compact cars, which usually represent about 15 percent of the market, rose to more than 20 percent. And sales of large vehicles fell by a staggering 36 percent. "We rarely see swings like that," says Tom Libby of J.D. Power. "The question is whether May was the beginning of a trend or an aberration."
Libby tends to think it was an aberration, since research suggests gas prices would have to stay near $4 per gallon for a year before such abrupt changes in buying habits become permanent. So far, they've been near that level only for a couple of months. If Libby's right, car sales over the summer won't be weighted so heavily against larger vehicles, which would pad GM's market share. But others see it differently—most notably, GM CEO Rick Wagoner, who said in May that rising gas prices and changes in the U.S. car market are "more structural than cyclical."

Honda surges. Honda may be in an even better position that Toyota, because it has no full-size trucks or SUVs to weigh down sales. And its numbers prove it. Total industry sales are down about 8 percent so far this year. Honda's are up 5 percent. And for the first time ever, the thrifty Civic was the top-selling overall vehicle in May. Honda's market share has risen from 9.3 percent a year ago to 12 percent, surpassing Chrysler. It could even pass No. 3 Ford on a monthly basis by the end of the year.

Ford and Chrysler recede. This seems likely under any scenario, at least through the end of '08. Ford, heavily reliant on the F-150 pickup and SUVs like the Explorer, has the same big-truck problem as GM. Many analysts think Ford plans to ax its Mercury brand, which could cost a full percentage point of market share. Newer vehicles like the Edge, Fusion, and Focus will help, but Ford needs more of them, and it will take awhile. Chrysler—once one of the "Big Three"—is now the fifth-largest U.S. carmaker and drifting further. A $2.99 gas-price guarantee promotion was supposed to goose sales—but instead, they fell 25 percent in May. If discounted gas doesn't help sell cars, it's hard to know what will.

[DOGSTOY06]

I laugh everyday as I leave and hear the ford and chevy dealers trying so hard to give their dinosuars away,best so far is ford you buy a guzzler and get 3 yrs of .99 cent fuel.chevy has 1 yr free payments and gas. I turn left by garber chevy and see those monsters still setting ther collecting dust and just laugh at the knucklehead necks that are still looking to buy USA produced junk. toyota will over take chevy in a short while its inevitable!

[Bakemono]

Not only could Toyota become #1 in the US, I think its only a matter of time. The price of oil is not expected to go back down anytime soon, so $4 or more for a gallon of gas is a reality that we all are just going to have to get used to.
If that is indeed the case, I think that not only will you see GM fall to #2 in US sales, I think you could even see them fall to #3 (with Honda replacing them as #2).
Toyota's sales could be considerably better than they are now if they were able to keep up with the demand for the Prius.
The "experts" have always said that if the sales of big trucks and SUVs goes sour that the Detroit 3 are screwed. Well, guess what? The sales of big trucks and SUVs have gone sour.
While I dont doubt that Ford and GM will make great small cars and crossover SUVs, I dont seem them being able to beat Toyota and Honda.
Look at the Ford Focus vs the Corolla. Both are new models and the Focus is a very nice car, but the Corolla still beats it in sales.
The way I see it, Ford, GM and Chryler have all the can handle just to stay in business. I dont expect them to come out with enough new, exciting models to be able to compete with Toyota and Honda.

[Ne0z31]

I have a feeling hyundai will become a VERY big name soon also... they are making some amazing cars lately especially in comparison to their past vehicles

[ECHOKnight2000]

Bakemono Very good points. The Focus is a good car but that was like 8 years ago. The fact that its butt ugly and rides on a 9 year old platform doesn't make it that great.

[rty]

Originally Posted by Ne0z31

I have a feeling hyundai will become a VERY big name soon also... they are making some amazing cars lately especially in comparison to their past vehicles

Agreed. The new Sonata looks mouthwatering.

[eurohazard]

There was time when I would never have thought Toyota could beat GM on its own turf. But it will likely happen (and probably within a few years). It's pretty sad, unlike many who post here, I think GM or Ford going under would be tragic.

[cwayne]

More unemployment for Americans and Canadians?

[Sulu]

Originally Posted by ECHOKnight2000

Bakemono Very good points. The Focus is a good car but that was like 8 years ago. The fact that its butt ugly and rides on a 9 year old platform doesn't make it that great.

Exactly the point I was going to make. The North American Focus is a face-lifted version of the original European Focus, now almost a decade old. Too bad Ford refused to bring over the current Euro (Gen2) Focus; they could at least have cut some costs by assembling it in North America rather than importing it from Europe.

At least the next-gen Focus (Gen3) due out within the next few years will once again be an international vehicle, as Ford has said that it will be coming here (if I remember correctly).

Originally Posted by eurohazard

There was time when I would never have thought Toyota could beat GM on its own turf. But it will likely happen (and probably within a few years). It's pretty sad, unlike many who post here, I think GM or Ford going under would be tragic.

I agree that it would be very sad if GM and Ford (and Chrysler) were to go under, but they cannot blame anyone but themselves. Unlike their European operations, the North American operations were poorly managed:

• They put all their eggs (large trucks and truck-based SUVs) in one basket, the first thing you learn NOT to do when investing. Toyota and Nissan, for example, have both cars AND trucks, so now that trucks are not selling, they can shift production to cars. (And Toyota, Nissan and Honda have flexible manufacturing facilities, so that they can quickly and easily shift production from one vehicle to another, something that the Domestic 3 still lacks in great numbers.)
• They could not make other product that the buying public wanted to buy without losing money on it. The first lesson of a product company is to make something you can sell to your customer, and make a profit from it. If GM could not make money selling cars on 20-year old platforms (the Sunfire, etc.), they deserve to go under. Toyota is perhaps the other extreme (refusing to sell anything that will NOT make a profit), but because of good management, it is likely to beat GM worldwide, and maybe in America soon.

[cwayne]

Originally Posted by Sulu

but they cannot blame anyone but themselves. Unlike their European operations, the North American operations were poorly managed

You're somewhat right, but the biggest factors on why American car companies are sinking are:

Unions: Unions are destroying the big 3. They're extorting the manufacturers and bleeding them dry. They have ridiculously lavish pension plans for their employees.

Unprotected American auto industry: Japan has quotas and huge tariff on vehicles that enter their port. They limit how many cars a foreign manufacturer can bring in even if it's highly successful. They also slap foreign vehicles with big taxes. Here in the U.S., the "import" cars are often cheaper than in countries where they are made. They simply aren't slapped with a tariff.

Corrupt politicians: Our corrupt politicains permit our auto industry to be ravaged by foreign companies. Their priority is to get their bribe money from foreign companies rather than protect American jobs. Corrupt politicians also allow foreign entities to buy up our industry and MANY industrialized nations PROHIBITS the selling of their industry to foreign entities.

Greedy CEOs and share holders: If moving a Ford plant from Detroit to Mexico will generate a $200 million profit... the dirty bastards will do it. If it means that the CEO will get an extra $50 million/year, 3 mansions, 4 gulfstreams... they will do it, despite killing American jobs.

Sure you can say, "Well they deserve it." Well... the CEOs and the share holders and the union leaders do deserve to go broke and live in skid row. However, the victims will always be the worker who is trying to earn a living so they can feed and house their family.

[Dana_15]

Originally Posted by cwayne

Corrupt politicians: Our corrupt politicains permit our auto industry to be ravaged by foreign companies. Their priority is to get their bribe money from foreign companies rather than protect American jobs.

[CheeseHead91182]

The domestics have no one to blame but themselves for the situation they are in. They spent the past two decades building SUVs and ignoring almost every other segment in the auto industry and now they are paying the price. By doing that the domestics left the car segments open for the imports to come in and get a hold on the market.

Ford had a great car in the Taurus but kept it the same for a decade then made it look like a dead fish. GM and Chrysler put so little time into their cars it was painfully obvious in their vehicles lack of quality.

It is rediculous for anyone to suggest that we support these inept companies just because they are American. There are millions of companies in America that have bad business plans and go out of business should we give our money to those others too or just GM, Ford and Chrysler because they are so big?

[blacken]

Originally Posted by cwayne

More unemployment for Americans and Canadians?

No way dude our industry will go from first world to second and third world in some areas that all the car manufacturers will be using us for cheap labor =D
cheap jobs for everybooty

Originally Posted by cwayne

You're somewhat right, but the biggest factors on why American car companies are sinking are:

Unions: Unions are destroying the big 3. They're extorting the manufacturers and bleeding them dry. They have ridiculously lavish pension plans for their employees.

i agree with you 100 percent
why do you think toyota plants destroy any unions from showing up
and the local goverment also stops it becouse if the plant unionises toyota packs up and leaves

thats why i love right to work states
no unions are good
this isnt the old ages where companys payed pennys

this is the new age
and in several areas unions are no longer needed

unions just make lazy workers

[ryannel2003]

As much as I love GM, they have done this to themselves. While Toyota was busy producing cars like the Prius, Corolla and Camry, GM was investing all their money into their large trucks and SUV's. Yes GM has the Yukon/Tahoe Hybrid, sales have been slow so far and that money should have been invested into the Malibu/Aura as a holdover until the Volt comes out in 2010/2011. Those cars use a very uneffective hybird system which nets a 1-2MPG advantage over their standard gasoline counterparts. Not exactly a grand slam.

I hope GM is able to pull themselves out of this rut. They really make some great cars. But for every good car, there are 2 or 3 that are mediocre at best.

[Bakemono]

Originally Posted by eurohazard

There was time when I would never have thought Toyota could beat GM on its own turf. But it will likely happen (and probably within a few years). It's pretty sad, unlike many who post here, I think GM or Ford going under would be tragic.

It would be very tragic if Ford and GM were to go under. Just think of all the people it would put out of work. Not just the people who work directly for Ford and GM, but all the smaller companies like Lear who supply parts to Ford and GM.
I want to see Ford and GM do well, I just dont want them to do quite as well as Toyota.
I very much resent the mentality that just because we are living in the United States that we are obligated to buy from American automakers. The Detroit 3 have been doing business with the Japanese for years. Why cant we? The Detroit 3 have proven time and time again that they will sell-out the American working class and move their factories overseas if it means making a profit. If they arent going to be loyal to us, why should we be loyal to them?
I also dont feel sorry for the Detroit 3 and the problems they are having. The have known for decades that eventually oil prices would go up and that the days of big trucks and SUVs would be over. Instead of working to come out with vehicles that were more fuel-efficient, they costantly came out with bigger and more powerful vehicles that burnt more and more fuel. Now, oil prices are up, big vehicles arent selling and the Detroit 3 are running around like a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off, screaming, "the sky is falling, the sky is falling!!" Well, Im sorry, but Detroit created their own problems by focusing so much on big vehicles.