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Discussion Starter #1
According to this article, you may save money buying a new Tesla Model 3 compared to owning a new 2020 Corolla sedan (L, LE Hybrid and XSE) for 5 years and even in worse case scenario against the Model 3, the Tesla only costs a little more so it will surely be worth it.


Do the numbers add up to you?
One of the assumptions in the article is that you will spend about $3400-$4000 over 5 years on maintenance costs on a Corolla sedan. I don't see how that adds up when looking at scheduled maintenance plus wear items you can expect outside of the scheduled maintenance (1 tire replacement plus brake pads, wiper blades etc..). What should maintenance costs really be over 5 years on average when considering scheduled maintenance plus everything you can reasonably expect to wear out in 5 years driven average mileage per year?
 

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Today, November 2019. I suspect this is not true. My last Corolla ( 2009 )
has no repairs in 10 years. I change my own brake pads, oil and filters. In the long run there are savings to be had driving an electric car. The Tesla 3 is much more expensive to buy and insure, even with the savings in fuel I suspect that the Tesla 3 is more expensive in the long run. People have asked me if I will ever buy a Tesla, my response is that I will an electric car when Toyota makes them. Have you forgotten that Toyota once owned a big chunk of Tesla and ran screaming off into the sun set like a scalded cat? Tesla is no threat to Toyota. Would you rather to drive a Tesla 3 or an electric Corolla?
 

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I see no cost benefit in owning a Tesla. You pay for a supercharger access, retrofit your house to charge at home. And the cool factor, if there's no supercharging station on the road you travel, good luck.

Even if, Tesla dropped the price to the mid $30k, it's still not cost effective to own, insure, and operate.

The model S is more attractive on the used market since the model 3 hit the streets. Especially more so, if the owner has free access to the supercharging stations.
 

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Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
Toyota is extremely uninterested in selling full electric cars. There is a reason the Mirai is fuel cell instead of an EV.
Expect more hybrids and plug-in hybrids for the next several years and zero Toyota EVs. That’s what Toyota considers their “electrified“ vehicles.

If you want an EV in the next 10 years, it will have to be from a different brand than Toyota.

I don’t think the upcoming RAV4 Prime is going to compare favorably to a Standard Range Model Y (expected to start at around $40K) in ownership costs, but I still think a Model 3 costing less to own over 5 years than a new Corolla is a stretch.
 

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And Toyota will not sell it's stake in Tesla.
 

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Discussion Starter #6
I see no cost benefit in owning a Tesla. You pay for a supercharger access, retrofit your house to charge at home. And the cool factor, if there's no supercharging station on the road you travel, good luck.

Even if, Tesla dropped the price to the mid $30k, it's still not cost effective to own, insure, and operate.

The model S is more attractive on the used market since the model 3 hit the streets. Especially more so, if the owner has free access to the supercharging stations.
There are some scenarios where the Tesla is cheap to own, such as if you can get by with free charging at work. No need to get a home charger.
If you drive less than 40-50 miles a day, you can also get by charging at home with just a standard 110V outlet and topping up more with free EV charging when you go grocery shopping every week.
Sometimes you can get several thousand miles of free Supercharging when buying a Model 3 with a referral code, then you get more free Supercharging if you refer others.

Some others greatly benefit with commute time savings they get with HOV access.
 

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Discussion Starter #7 (Edited)
Today, November 2019. I suspect this is not true. My last Corolla ( 2009 )
has no repairs in 10 years. I change my own brake pads, oil and filters. In the long run there are savings to be had driving an electric car. The Tesla 3 is much more expensive to buy and insure, even with the savings in fuel I suspect that the Tesla 3 is more expensive in the long run. People have asked me if I will ever buy a Tesla, my response is that I will an electric car when Toyota makes them. Have you forgotten that Toyota once owned a big chunk of Tesla and ran screaming off into the sun set like a scalded cat? Tesla is no threat to Toyota. Would you rather to drive a Tesla 3 or an electric Corolla?
The average person doesn’t do their own maintenance though.
If you get all scheduled maintenance done a Toyota service center rates including new brake pads, tires and wiper blades, maybe one unexpected wheel alignment, new 12v battery etc., does that even add up to $3K-4K over 5 years?
 

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Discussion Starter #8

Look at projected maintenance and repair costs over 5 years.
 

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Just hope you don't get into a car wreck with a Tesla. You'll be facing at least a month and typically more of your car being in the shop waiting on parts. TFL chronicled their ordeal getting their Model 3 fixed from a simple fender bender which didn't put the car out of commission. It was still driveable and the damage was all cosmetic. Plus the final tally on the cost to fix the body damage was mind boggling....5 figures if I recall correctly.

Also, if there are problems with your Tesla, your only choice is to go have Tesla do the work. Tesla will not make it easy nor support independent repair shops in fixing their cars. Rich Rebuilds has also chronicled his ordeal with trying to get information and parts out of Tesla. I also think Rich put together a video (or someone else did) about what a Tesla owner can expect as future maintenance costs to own one of these cars. It's not as maintenance free as many would lead you to believe and there is a cost to keep these vehicles running.
 

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In the short term Electric Vehicles are basically a carrot dangled in front of consumers faces.
Gas prices are raised to subsidize the electricity at the 'Free' charging stations.
Once enough have switched, the free is replaced with high charges including convenience fees.
Taxes are raised on the cars to make up for the lost revenue of gas taxes and then some.

People always talk about how far they can go on a charge.
I think of it the same way as a cell phone.
How many people will be leaving home on the equivalent of 2 bars, only to run out of charge and block traffic.
How about those who will leave with what they think is plenty of charge on a cold or hot day, only to get stuck in traffic. With the heat or AC on the battery depletes resulting in several cars running out of charge and blocking traffic more. That results in more cars losing charge, and next thing you know, the highway is impassible.

As to the free charging stations, how many cars are at a typical shopping center or store. Charging stations work now because they can have 2 or 3 and few to no people are needing them.
Fast forward a decade where hundreds of cars are in the lot for Christmas shopping. Dozens of partially charged cars will arrive at random after being stuck in traffic with their heaters running. Do you really think that the business owners will absorb the up front cost of dozens of charging stations and the power to charge the cars?

In the end, the whole electric car craze is nothing but smoke and mirrors. This and the entire digitization of society will ultimately be the set-up for some very bad times. This will happen with a simple infrastructure problem or internet attack.
 

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No one has really taken a hard look at how shifting your energy supply chain from gas to electric impacts the environment and the actual costs. Yeah it's great you've got zero emissions at the end point but that electricity has to be produced some where. Which means a coal fired plant or nuclear power. Many service areas have infrastructures which are barely keeping up with the current demand. Imagine how things will be with the added load of more electric vehicles. This would mean having to upgrade the electrical supply grid and...horrors....looking at building out new power plants. Take your pick...coal or nuclear.

Then you have the issue of what to do with spent batteries. Or the other side of this is the environmental impacts of mining to get the materials needed to create a battery.

Electric vehicles have come a long way. I had a job where I was working on some projects with electric vehicles to include the GM EV1. The issue then as it is now is power (batteries and source electricity). The advancement of electric vehicles in the market as stated has only gotten this far due to our tax dollars subsidizing the industry. Take that away and the electric car market will collapse onto itself.
 

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Yeah it's great you've got zero emissions at the end point but that electricity has to be produced some where. Which means a coal fired plant or nuclear power. Many service areas have infrastructures which are barely keeping up with the current demand. Imagine how things will be with the added load of more electric vehicles
That’s the major point many are missing or rather sweep under the carpet. The calculation makes sense on paper and for now, with subsidies and not many users thus not too much pressure (yet) on electricity production/cost (and other related resources and environmental consequences). I see the electric car a bit as hybrids were: a step toward something else but not “the” sustainable alternative for individual transportation.
 

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No one has really taken a hard look at how shifting your energy supply chain from gas to electric impacts the environment and the actual costs. Yeah it's great you've got zero emissions at the end point but that electricity has to be produced some where. Which means a coal fired plant or nuclearpower
Here is the break-down of how electricity is produced in the USA:

Natural gas 35.2%
Coal 27.5%
Nuclear 19.4%
Hydro-Electric 7.0%
Wind 6.5%
Solar 1.5%
Other 2.9%

The odds of getting a new nuclear power plant approved are slim.
 

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Article is based on assumptions that the battery lasts the same in winter and summer, and that Tesla 3's quality is the same as Corolla's. I have driven a Model S so speak from experience...

Maintenance:
The numbers the writer uses show $900 for Tesla vs $4000 for Corolla. The only difference is 1 engine oil change per year for Corolla, i.e. Corolla numbers are over-inflated. If you make those realistic then the overall cost paints a different picture and the premise flies out of the window.

Range:
Driving a Corolla HB costs me $9 per day in gas year round. Driving a Model 3 would cost me $5-6 per day in summer and $8-9 in winter - if I can get into it in winter time! In southern states one may get away with same range but here in Ontario a half a year would have the reduced range. So average for a year is more like $7 per day making the overall "fuel" cost differential much narrower at 25~30% advantage for Tesla, and not 70-80% like the assumption in the article.

Quality:
How much time do you plan for it to spend at the dealer? Tesla ranked among worst quality cars for reliability. Once the warranty is out it will cost waaay more for maintenance. The article doesn't mention the option where Tesla buys back your car after 3 year, guess why Tesla wants to buy your car back after 3 years?
 

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How many Model 3 buyers are cross shopping Corollas? If anything, the M3 has affected sales of the entry level luxury sedans, like the 3 Series and C Class (and Lexus IS, which is almost irrelevant now with its age) more than anything Corolla or Civic. Perhaps the operating costs may be lower, but you spend more for the vehicle, but for what you get, it is worth it for a lot given that the performance is pretty damn good.

Toyota's stance is that the demand is still very low, though most of the electric buyers are in Teslas, which is doing the company well given the many of them I see in California. The target market that are buying them are like the first adopters of the Prius and hybrids, who tend to be affluent.

 

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Discussion Starter #16 (Edited)
No one has really taken a hard look at how shifting your energy supply chain from gas to electric impacts the environment and the actual costs. Yeah it's great you've got zero emissions at the end point but that electricity has to be produced some where. Which means a coal fired plant or nuclear power. Many service areas have infrastructures which are barely keeping up with the current demand. Imagine how things will be with the added load of more electric vehicles. This would mean having to upgrade the electrical supply grid and...horrors....looking at building out new power plants. Take your pick...coal or nuclear.

Then you have the issue of what to do with spent batteries. Or the other side of this is the environmental impacts of mining to get the materials needed to create a battery.

Electric vehicles have come a long way. I had a job where I was working on some projects with electric vehicles to include the GM EV1. The issue then as it is now is power (batteries and source electricity). The advancement of electric vehicles in the market as stated has only gotten this far due to our tax dollars subsidizing the industry. Take that away and the electric car market will collapse onto itself.
Plenty of people have looked at the supply chain and it has already been debunked that powering a gas car is cleaner than electric due to battery disposal and coal power plants. You are far from the first person to bring this up.

People were making the same arguments against the Toyota Prius. “The battery is going to fail after a few years and wipe out all your gas savings, so don’t bother with a hybrid.“
For most EVs including Tesla’s, even if you live in an area that uses coal, it’s still cleaner in the long run because of how little energy is used per mile in an EV vs an ICE. Also, lots of components in a disposed EV battery can be recycled and used towards new batteries.

The only EV I see as a problem is the Nissan Leaf. Due to no thermal management, the Leaf batteries have been degrading and making the cars impractical for most people after only a few years. Nissan even said the Leaf‘s life expectancy is 10 years. The entire car is disposable after only 10 years.

I wouldn’t buy an EV if I was relying on free charging to get around. I would charge overnight at home. If you don’t drive many miles per day, you can just plug into a standard 110v wall outlet and add around 4 miles per hour in an overnight charge. 32 miles even if you have such a tight schedule that you leave home the next day only 8 hours after arriving the night before.

If I regularly need to drive more than 30-50 miles per day, then I’d pay to get a 220v outlet installed in the garage and then recharge 25 miles per hour (200 miles of range per 8 hours plugged in overnight).

It would be pretty dumb to leave the house with low battery and 100% rely on recharging at free grocery store chargers that might be occupied.

After owning an EV for a while, you learn how many miles of range to expect even with the heater is on. You can also just research it ahead of time in EV forums.

If you’re on a road trip or somehow forgot to plug the car in when you parked the day before and end up leaving home with low battery, then pay to recharge at a DC Fast Charger or a Supercharger if you have Tesla. Fast chargers make a profit to the owner and will be built in numbers to support growing demand. Electrify America is building a huge nationwide network of for-pay chargers in the next year for EV owners that don’t drive Tesla’s so they can go on road trips knowing there will be enough fast chargers along the route to make it feasible.
 

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Discussion Starter #17 (Edited)
Article is based on assumptions that the battery lasts the same in winter and summer, and that Tesla 3's quality is the same as Corolla's. I have driven a Model S so speak from experience...

Maintenance:
The numbers the writer uses show $900 for Tesla vs $4000 for Corolla. The only difference is 1 engine oil change per year for Corolla, i.e. Corolla numbers are over-inflated. If you make those realistic then the overall cost paints a different picture and the premise flies out of the window.
What is a realistic estimated cost for 5 years of dealership-provided scheduled maintenance (oil and filter, cabin and air filters, tire rotations, inspections etc) plus all the wear and tear items you can expect over the next 5 years in a 2020 Corolla sedan?

You know you need everything listed in the owners manual under required maintenance plus a set of tires, brake pads, several sets of wiper blades, blown incandescent bulbs, replace the 12v battery once, radiator flush. People here recommend getting CVT fluid replaced before 5 years even though that's not listed as a maintenance item.

What else "might" likely fail out of warranty in 5 years (alternator, water pump, a/c compressor, belts and hoses) and add up to Edmunds' 5 year estimates of $3400-$4000 if you are part of the majority of people who don't do auto maintenance and repair yourself?
 

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Discussion Starter #18 (Edited)
How many Model 3 buyers are cross shopping Corollas? If anything, the M3 has affected sales of the entry level luxury sedans, like the 3 Series and C Class (and Lexus IS, which is almost irrelevant now with its age) more than anything Corolla or Civic. Perhaps the operating costs may be lower, but you spend more for the vehicle, but for what you get, it is worth it for a lot given that the performance is pretty damn good.

Toyota's stance is that the demand is still very low, though most of the electric buyers are in Teslas, which is doing the company well given the many of them I see in California. The target market that are buying them are like the first adopters of the Prius and hybrids, who tend to be affluent.

People looking at Corollas will look at Model 3s if they can believe their ownership costs of the Model 3 can possibly be cheaper or only such a small amount more that the cost is worth it.

Here is a video stating that it's cheaper to own a Model 3 than a Camry.

Another one saying a Model 3 will cost less over 5 years than a new Accord.
 

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Teslas are great for what they bring to the table:
-Trendy
-Amazing performance in most models (especially AWD and bigger battery versions)
-Probably cheaper to own during first 5 year and/or typical lease period
-if you are just an in-towner, so so convenient to just charge at home and never visit a gas station again.

However, no way do I believe that a TM3 is "cheaper" to own than a Corolla. Obviously, buy-in price is significantly higher. I don't know where they are getting their costs from.... a Corolla is dirt cheap to own. Even our trouble-prone 2006 Saabaru hasn't cost us too much the last few years.

Anyways, I think the new Prime models coming out from Toyota are going to be a better option for us. The ability to drive in-town on battery and take longer trips on gas is far more appealing than being tethered to long charging times at iffy Tesla charging stations. The new Rav4 Prime even has very decent performance figures, which I think is what has kept many people from buying the Prius. Being able to do 0-60 in 5-ish seconds and drive most places in town on electricity alone makes Tesla a non-contender in our household.

I'm hoping Toyota develops a Tundra Prime.....40 or so miles unladen all-electric with an ability to take long trips whilst towing on gas has me hoping I can finally replace my truck.
 

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Discussion Starter #20
Teslas are great for what they bring to the table:
-Trendy
-Amazing performance in most models (especially AWD and bigger battery versions)
-Probably cheaper to own during first 5 year and/or typical lease period
-if you are just an in-towner, so so convenient to just charge at home and never visit a gas station again.

However, no way do I believe that a TM3 is "cheaper" to own than a Corolla. Obviously, buy-in price is significantly higher. I don't know where they are getting their costs from.... a Corolla is dirt cheap to own. Even our trouble-prone 2006 Saabaru hasn't cost us too much the last few years.

Anyways, I think the new Prime models coming out from Toyota are going to be a better option for us. The ability to drive in-town on battery and take longer trips on gas is far more appealing than being tethered to long charging times at iffy Tesla charging stations. The new Rav4 Prime even has very decent performance figures, which I think is what has kept many people from buying the Prius. Being able to do 0-60 in 5-ish seconds and drive most places in town on electricity alone makes Tesla a non-contender in our household.

I'm hoping Toyota develops a Tundra Prime.....40 or so miles unladen all-electric with an ability to take long trips whilst towing on gas has me hoping I can finally replace my truck.
Depends on the cost of the RAV4 Prime. Look at the cost of a RAV4 Hybrid and add several thousand more to the price to upgrade to the Prime. They will likely be selling for full MSRP plus extra at shady dealerships for at least several months if not a year or more due to slow ramp up of adequate production. Even the existing Hybrid seems to be in somewhat short supply due to low delivery numbers. How are they going to be able to add even more production adding the RAV 4 Prime when they can barely pump out their existing models?
If you are eligible for the full tax credit, then it could net costing less than a Hybrid after you cash your tax credit checks a year to 18 months later.

So the RAV4 Prime may end up costing over $35K even after getting the tax credits and you still have all the ICE engine maintenance and repair costs. You will likely need well over $40K plus pay the sales tax and registration fees based on the sales price to drive off the lot while you wait for processing of the tax rebate.

If you can keep 99% of your driving within the EV range and don't accelerate hard enough to start up the ICE to boost power, I could see how it may work out well for some people. In that case, you never need to use gas unless you need to drive over 39 miles in a day. That amount of driving is within what you can recharge overnight with a standard 110v household outlet so you can avoid paying for an electrician to install a 220V charging outlet. A 220v outlet would still be more energy efficient and would allow you to recharge the battery multiple times at home in the same day since it would take less than 2 hours to recharge.
 
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