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My buddy was on the TM3 $35K version waitlist for over a year, and finally he folded and bought an all-out Dual Motor expensive TM3. So, Tesla isn't really keeping up with demand either.

For us, because we road trip, Tesla or full-EV will never be viable for us.

You bring up a good point, a plug-in hybrid can get by on a 120v outlet. Good for us since our breaker panel is for some darn reason on the exact opposite end of our home from the garage. Running 220v to the garage would be prohibitively expensive on our particular home, whereas many homes have the breaker panel in or near the garage.
 

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Discussion Starter #22 (Edited)
My buddy was on the TM3 $35K version waitlist for over a year, and finally he folded and bought an all-out Dual Motor expensive TM3. So, Tesla isn't really keeping up with demand either.

For us, because we road trip, Tesla or full-EV will never be viable for us.

You bring up a good point, a plug-in hybrid can get by on a 120v outlet. Good for us since our breaker panel is for some darn reason on the exact opposite end of our home from the garage. Running 220v to the garage would be prohibitively expensive on our particular home, whereas many homes have the breaker panel in or near the garage.
A full EV like a Tesla can also get by with just 120v home charging provided you only drive around 40 miles or less on a daily basis. Then you use Tesla Superchargers and other public chargers only on road trips or on rare weeks where you drive more in a week than you can recharge at 120v speeds within a week.

If you have a full EV with lots of reserve range, even if you drive a bit more per weekday than you can fully recharge overnight at 120v, you can leave it charging more hours on the weekends to get caught up again if you don't drive much on most weekends. If you're going on a roadtrip on the weekend, then stop at a Supercharger to top up before heading out of town and then top up again when you get back in town.
Many people get by fine with full EVs and only 120v home charging.
 

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I don't think you have same meaning I have of "road trip".
I mean 600+ miles a day. I realize newer generation don't do this type of trip any more, but for my family, we regularly drive from WA state to all points west of the Rockies, and oddly, we enjoy it.
We can "recharge" our gas vehicle's 400-500 mile range in 12-15 minutes INCLUDING potty breaks and snacky treats. There's no way you'd ever be able to do that in an EV, not for a long while yet.
The fastest charge rates for EVs generally are to 80% at which point the rates decrease greatly. Also, EVs don't like to be hooned through the mountains, not good for their range. I had a Stage 1 2016 GTI that was seriously quick at elevation going UP mountains, even driving like a total bafoon I barely knocked the range down at all in that car.
 

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Discussion Starter #24
I don't think you have same meaning I have of "road trip".
I mean 600+ miles a day. I realize newer generation don't do this type of trip any more, but for my family, we regularly drive from WA state to all points west of the Rockies, and oddly, we enjoy it.
We can "recharge" our gas vehicle's 400-500 mile range in 12-15 minutes INCLUDING potty breaks and snacky treats. There's no way you'd ever be able to do that in an EV, not for a long while yet.
The fastest charge rates for EVs generally are to 80% at which point the rates decrease greatly. Also, EVs don't like to be hooned through the mountains, not good for their range. I had a Stage 1 2016 GTI that was seriously quick at elevation going UP mountains, even driving like a total bafoon I barely knocked the range down at all in that car.
With a Tesla, charging to 80% at a Supercharger is fast and the Supercharger stops are usually well located spaced more than close enough that you rarely need to waste time waiting to "fill it" 100%. In the time for a car load of people to take turns using the restroom at a gas station, you can recharge enough to get to the next bathroom stop.
Every few hours, most people want to take a longer break of at least 30 minutes for a sit down meal and at those stops you can add longer Supercharging sessions.

It can also be a miserable trip trying to cover as much ground as physically possible in the absolute minimal time possible, stretching out bathroom breaks to 400+ mile stints to the point that people are getting very uncomfortable and risking blood clots.
 

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A Tesla takes at least 30 minutes to 80%, and well over an hour for 100% at a SC. And at a range of around 200 miles per 80% charge, you'll be stopping more frequently and for longer periods than with an IC car. Also, when making a long road trip, sometimes it is urgent to get back on the road right away to miss rush-hour in metro areas you'd like to drive through, or try and get certain milestones a day.

Many modern cars can easily go over 500 miles on a 12 minute fill-up.

Long road trips aren't for everybody, but it's something our family enjoys. We've got a Nissan Titan Crew Cab that we usually road trip in. It has a large interior, the wife usually sets up an "office" with her work laptop and my son passes time with the DVD system. Most of the time potty breaks are at rest stops, gas stations are dispatched in under 12 minutes.
Even at 18 MPG, the Titan is FAR cheaper than airplane tickets for 3, and many times we NEED the vehicle for off-roading adventures in MOAB or towing our boat to Eastern WA (another thing Tesla is never gonna be able to do as full-EV within 10+ years).

Anyways, point 1 per the OP is that I don't believe that a Tesla has a lower cost to own than a Corolla. You'd have to skew the facts favorably to the Tesla. I am certain that a Corolla can go a full decade without any repair needed. That, and the ACTUAL average transaction price of MOST Teslas are nearly 3x the buy-in of an average Corolla...come on.
Point 2 is that the statement of "lower cost than Corolla" somehow implies a Tesla is a good replacement of a gas car for the average car buyer (hence the Corolla doppleganger). A Tesla only is a good choice for people who can afford it (high initial buy in) and who don't value the long-range characteristics of a gas vehicle.

Many people these days can easily live with a Tesla. But, I'd rather have a plug-in Hybrid that can either be EV or IC, that's my ideal vehicle. Cost to own doesn't matter if it can't fulfill the needs of my family.
 

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Toyota is extremely uninterested in selling full electric cars. There is a reason the Mirai is fuel cell instead of an EV.
Expect more hybrids and plug-in hybrids for the next several years and zero Toyota EVs. That’s what Toyota considers their “electrified“ vehicles.

If you want an EV in the next 10 years, it will have to be from a different brand than Toyota.

I don’t think the upcoming RAV4 Prime is going to compare favorably to a Standard Range Model Y (expected to start at around $40K) in ownership costs, but I still think a Model 3 costing less to own over 5 years than a new Corolla is a stretch.
The new Muria is rumored to be a full blow EV. And doesn't look bad either.

Also, why the hell do you come HERE with Tesla propaganda? It is unwelcome and not needed. Take your sales pitch else where. Corolla is a cheap, reliable, well built safe car. It's affordable by many. The Tesla (any version) isn't. More so when you factor in the cost of purchase, cost of a power cell/charging station for home, rewiring the home to get a slightly better charge, or using supercharging stations. You aren't going to convince a single person here who's just VERY recently bought a brand new car, to go and buy another brand new car. Do you know where the door is, or do we need to have you removed?
 

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Two things.
1. Average life of a car in the US today is close to 12 years. Average Tesla will be in the scrap heap in 12 years.
2. One thing we never hear about electric cars is the losses in charging. The leaf is 15% measured at YOUR meter and at the battery.

Once the insurance companies figure out the real cost of any accident in a Tesla the insurance might be more than double a gas car. Your selling price is joke and a myth.

My old ass $1600 Echo cost me 4 cents a mile for fuel, ALL TAXES AND FEES INCLUDED. It costs me $60 a month to drive 1500 miles INCLUDING TAXES AND FEES.

When you figure the "fuel" cost for your Tesla MAKE DAMN SURE YOU ADD THE TOTAL COST PER KILOWATT, INCLUDING THE BUMP WHEN YOU GO OVER 3500 KILOWATTS A MONTH LIKE IT IS HERE.


7 years old and they are trying to dump it before the battery craps out. My Echo in that time would cost me $8400 total, one years worth of depreciation in this Tesla. I have all the spare parts you could imagine.
 

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Two things.
1. Average life of a car in the US today is close to 12 years. Average Tesla will be in the scrap heap in 12 years.
2. One thing we never hear about electric cars is the losses in charging. The leaf is 15% measured at YOUR meter and at the battery.

Once the insurance companies figure out the real cost of any accident in a Tesla the insurance might be more than double a gas car. Your selling price is joke and a myth.

My old ass $1600 Echo cost me 4 cents a mile for fuel, ALL TAXES AND FEES INCLUDED. It costs me $60 a month to drive 1500 miles INCLUDING TAXES AND FEES.

When you figure the "fuel" cost for your Tesla MAKE DAMN SURE YOU ADD THE TOTAL COST PER KILOWATT, INCLUDING THE BUMP WHEN YOU GO OVER 3500 KILOWATTS A MONTH LIKE IT IS HERE.


7 years old and they are trying to dump it before the battery craps out. My Echo in that time would cost me $8400 total, one years worth of depreciation in this Tesla. I have all the spare parts you could imagine.
Your statement about insurance reminds me of another issue: registration. In some states, like WA, they will "assess" the value of your vehicle during yearly registration. In some states, like WA, they over-value a vehicles. In the last 4 years, due to our changing registration taxes, many vehicles have become 5x-10x more expensive per year to register than just a few years ago.
You better believe they will tax the piss outta a Tesla. And, some regions are even developing surcharges for EVs to offset lost gas tax revenue, and quite often the surcharges are very steep and don't hold up to simple math.

Soon enough, once electrical grids become overwhelmed with higher rates of EV ownership, we'll all be paying for EVs by way of higher utility rates, even if we don't have an EV. Anybody who thinks otherwise doesn't see what's coming....
 

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Discussion Starter #30
With a Tesla, charging to 80% at a Supercharger is fast and the Supercharger stops are usually well located spaced more than close enough that you rarely need to waste time waiting to "fill it" 100%. In the time for a car load of people to take turns using the restroom at a gas station, you can recharge enough to get to the next bathroom stop.
Every few hours, most people want to take a longer break of at least 30 minutes for a sit down meal and at those stops you can add longer Supercharging sessions.

It can also be a miserable trip trying to cover as much ground as physically possible in the absolute minimal time possible, stretching out bathroom breaks to 400+ mile stints to the point that people are getting very uncomfortable and risking blood clots.
It can take 30 minutes to charge to 80%, but you don't even need to charge to 80% each time on most Tesal road trips. You only need enough charge to keep the battery at a level where you can add some charge and take a bathroom/stretch break (10 minutes or so) and then after a few hours of doing that, you can take a long stop, get a sit down meal and allow the car to charge closer to 100% for the next legs of the trip. You can keep that up many hundreds of miles on a very long road trip.
If your road trips are RUSH, RUSH, RUSH to the bathroom and be back to the car before the tank is full, eat in the car with drive through fast food meals, drive nonstop through the night switching drivers types of trips, then an EV won't be able to keep up with that pace for now.

Also depends on how often you road tip and where to. Does it really matter if it takes you 45 minutes longer to take a 5 hour trip to Grandma's house once a year if the vehicle fully meets your needs every other day of the year?
 

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Discussion Starter #31
Whilst fact-checking myself, I found this: https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/23/tesla-model-3-average-selling-price-asp-59300-surveys-find/

The average transaction price of a Model 3 is over $59K. So no, it's not cheaper to own than a Corolla. Comparing the virtues of a car that typically sells for $59K to a car that typically sells for low $20's is disingenuous.
That $59K is from over a year ago before the Standard Range and Standard Range Plus models were released and before price drops on the other models happened.
Average price is probably over $10K less now. You can get a Model 3 Standard Range Plus for $40K now. Even the F-150 sized Cybertruck is supposed to start at $40K and I can't imagine the base Model Y would be more than a Cybertruck when the base model version of the Model Y is released.
 

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Discussion Starter #33
The new Muria is rumored to be a full blow EV. And doesn't look bad either.
No, it's still a fuel cell vehicle that can only be refueled at a few stations nationwide.
Not sure why Toyota is so fixated on fuel cells when there so much more resistance to buying a fuel cell than even an EV.
Not enough demand to produce EVs, but they think there is more demand for fuel cells?
 

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No, it's still a fuel cell vehicle that can only be refueled at a few stations nationwide.
Not sure why Toyota is so fixated on fuel cells when there so much more resistance to buying a fuel cell than even an EV.
Not enough demand to produce EVs, but they think there is more demand for fuel cells?
Toyota can be very "old-school" in their thinking. I get it, I am the same way. Maybe they are fixated on the same thing that bugs me, ability to restore your 500+ miles of range in a few minutes, not 200 some-odd miles in over half an hour. Probably not the way forward, though....
 

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Discussion Starter #35
Nobody has answered the question about what is a realistic expected cost for 5 years of maintenance and wear and tear items, tires, brakes, new battery etc. over 5 years of typical mileage for a 2020 Corolla sedan.
If $3400-4000 as estimated by Edmunds is way too high, then what's more realistic assuming you are getting all your work done at a Toyota service center (not DIY home maintenance)?
 

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Discussion Starter #36
Toyota can be very "old-school" in their thinking. I get it, I am the same way. Maybe they are fixated on the same thing that bugs me, ability to restore your 500+ miles of range in a few minutes, not 200 some-odd miles in over half an hour. Probably not the way forward, though....
Fuel cells would have the worst possible refueling experience. Most EV owners can recharge the vehicle at home while they sleep.
With a fuel cell vehicle, you can refuel faster, but you have so few places to charge.
I looked at hydrogen fuel station locations and the closest one is 30 minutes out of my may in the opposite direction from work. Most of the country does't have a hydrogen fueling station anywhere within the driving range of the vehicle.
Nevermind recharging an EV in more time than it takes for an ICE vehicle on a road trip, with a fuel cell vehicle, a long distance trip is not even possible at all!
 

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Nobody has answered the question about what is a realistic expected cost for 5 years of maintenance and wear and tear items, tires, brakes, new battery etc. over 5 years of typical mileage for a 2020 Corolla sedan.
If $3400-4000 as estimated by Edmunds is way too high, then what's more realistic assuming you are getting all your work done at a Toyota service center (not DIY home maintenance)?
If we assume 15k/yr mileage, then that would put each vehicle at 75k for the comparo.
I am going to guess that both cars will require similar things, tires, wipers. The Corolla requiring an extra cost of oil changes (I do mine at 10K, but most do at 6K, so 13 oil changes) at $50 each, so $650?
Wanna bet the pro-Tesla spin used the "severe service" schedule of the Corolla?
Even my Q60 AWD requires very little in the normal service schedule, so although I don't own a Corolla, I will guess that in 75K it will be needing as much as a 2nd set of tires (Tesla would likely need more tires due to power output) 13 oil changes, same amount of wipers, cabin air filters, Corolla would need engine air filters x3-6.
I would guess the pro-Tesla comparo would need to use worst-case cost of gas vs. best-case cost of electricity, then factor in an unusually cheap home charger install (mine would likely cost $50k to install a charger to my garage because of the unfortunate location of my panel). I mean, it's close if you use a poverty-spec TM3 at $35K.

BTW the link I shared about the $59K TM3s was pointing out that people are adding on so much doo-dads like enhanced driving assist or autopilot that Tesla is really making out well on the TM3 because people are voluntarily upping the cost of ownership on these vehicles, hardly anyone is getting stripped-down TM3s.
Also, people forget that where the Corolla sales are, even a $500 price difference can make or break a deal for people just starting out.
I would argue that the poverty-spec TM3 against a loaded Accord or Camry is a more realistic comparo. You'd have to figure that maybe Accord/Camry demographics are more likely to own a home and be able to charge at home, whilst Corolla/Sentra/Elantra owners might be more likely to be apt dwellers and may not have charging available at home.
 

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Fuel cells would have the worst possible refueling experience. Most EV owners can recharge the vehicle at home while they sleep.
With a fuel cell vehicle, you can refuel faster, but you have so few places to charge.
I looked at hydrogen fuel station locations and the closest one is 30 minutes out of my may in the opposite direction from work. Most of the country does't have a hydrogen fueling station anywhere within the driving range of the vehicle.
Nevermind recharging an EV in more time than it takes for an ICE vehicle on a road trip, with a fuel cell vehicle, a long distance trip is not even possible at all!
I never considered a fuel cell. I have this image in my head of the explosive energy that is possible with them, so just that makes them a no-go for me. I can forgive Teslas for their proclivity to immolate themselves because you can usually escape the Tesla when it catches on fire.
 

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Discussion Starter #39 (Edited)
If we assume 15k/yr mileage, then that would put each vehicle at 75k for the comparo.
I am going to guess that both cars will require similar things, tires, wipers. The Corolla requiring an extra cost of oil changes (I do mine at 10K, but most do at 6K, so 13 oil changes) at $50 each, so $650?
Wanna bet the pro-Tesla spin used the "severe service" schedule of the Corolla?
Even my Q60 AWD requires very little in the normal service schedule, so although I don't own a Corolla, I will guess that in 75K it will be needing as much as a 2nd set of tires (Tesla would likely need more tires due to power output) 13 oil changes, same amount of wipers, cabin air filters, Corolla would need engine air filters x3-6.
I would guess the pro-Tesla comparo would need to use worst-case cost of gas vs. best-case cost of electricity, then factor in an unusually cheap home charger install (mine would likely cost $50k to install a charger to my garage because of the unfortunate location of my panel). I mean, it's close if you use a poverty-spec TM3 at $35K.

BTW the link I shared about the $59K TM3s was pointing out that people are adding on so much doo-dads like enhanced driving assist or autopilot that Tesla is really making out well on the TM3 because people are voluntarily upping the cost of ownership on these vehicles, hardly anyone is getting stripped-down TM3s.
Also, people forget that where the Corolla sales are, even a $500 price difference can make or break a deal for people just starting out.
I would argue that the poverty-spec TM3 against a loaded Accord or Camry is a more realistic comparo. You'd have to figure that maybe Accord/Camry demographics are more likely to own a home and be able to charge at home, whilst Corolla/Sentra/Elantra owners might be more likely to be apt dwellers and may not have charging available at home.
The $3400-$4K maintenance costs include things both a Corolla and Model 3 would need (tires, wipers etc.) so:

Oil and filter changes
air filters
cabin filters
tire rotations
4 new sets of wiper blades (if only replacing wipers once a year)
new tires
new brake pads
brake fluid, radiator and CVT flush???
replacement 12v battery
spark plugs replacement??
miscellaneous wear items, incandescent bulbs, fuses, belts, hoses etc.???
out of warranty repair items alternator, fuel pump, water pump, a/c compressor etc..???

What would all that add up to with 5 years 75K miles at typical dealership parts and labor prices?
 

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The $3400-$4K maintenance costs include things both a Corolla and Model 3 would need (tires, wipers etc.) so:

Oil and filter changes
air filters
cabin filters
tire rotations
4 new sets of wiper blades (if only replacing wipers once a year)
new tires
new brake pads
brake fluid, radiator and CVT flush???
replacement 12v battery
spark plugs replacement??
miscellaneous wear items, incandescent bulbs, fuses, belts, hoses etc.???
out of warranty repair items alternator, fuel pump, water pump, a/c compressor etc..???

What would all that add up to with 5 years 75K miles at typical dealership parts and labor prices?
I'll nitpick a bit:
Are there any 21st Century vehicles that haven't adopted 100K plugs? I would assume Corolla has 100K plugs...
Even though owners might elect to do a CVT flush, is it in the maintenance schedule? If it is, what's indicated for "severe service" as I assume most CVT systems are considered "sealed" (I never maintained a CVT vehicle, it's been a while, the last CVT vehicles I saw were the Justy CVT and Civic HX coupe CVT)
No incandescent bulbs on the Corolla, right? Well, maybe the hatchback is all LED, isn't it?

Speaking of "typical dealership" that brings up another huge issue for me concerning Tesla: they won't sell parts to DIY people, and I assume they won't sell to independent repair shops.

By limiting service choices in the comparison, we are kind of "accepting" that Tesla is trying to establish a new order for consumers. The idea of not being able to fix your own vehicle irks me, of course new generation people can't fix anything these days but at least allow them to have their vehicle they own be repaired by indies. It's well documented that Teslas suffer from the same mechanical maladies as most Euro vehicles of poor repute. Of course Teslas don't blow head gaskets, but their body electromechanics and suspension hardware do fail on a regular basis. So, an out-of-warranty Tesla will absolutely need regular attention as door handle actuators, ball joints, shocks, power windows, etc, fail. Forcing second or third hand owners to pay full Tesla service prices almost guarantees the cars to become disposable.
 
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