As far as the paper clip trick, that's certainly something you can do to verify what the dealer has come up with. The only difference here is that the terminals for you will be Tc and CG. Jump them with the ignition off, then turn it on and count the blinks on the VSC or TRAC light to get the two digit code. Put that code up here and we'll go in the manual and let you know what it is.
As far as the replacement of the ECU, that again is something you can do if you're reasonably inclined. Here's an explosion:
The only thing that might make it a little difficult is that on some of these models is the brake line cluster. You see how it comes out of the valve body and down over the computer that needs to be replaced. I've been able to get away with sneaking the computer out from under the lines, and on some I've had to disconnect them. If that's the case, the system will have to be bled when you're done. But, it isn't any special process that involves a computer. The ABS system will manually bleed the old fashioned way. After replacement, a "zero point" calibration will have to be performed to reset the baselines for the acceleration, yaw, and steering sensors. I've never done it myself without the Toyota factory tester, but I do have a manual process for it. It involves jumping a few terminals in the diagnostic connector and pressing several buttons while you turn the wheel and step on the brake pedal. Like I said, I haven't ever done it this way, but I'd like to know if it works. :naughty: You can be the guinea pig for everyone.
Now, as far as the diagnosis of a computer, here's my take: a very small number of computers are at the root of most problems. I'm always skeptical when someone says they've been given that diagnosis, but that's not to say it doesn't happen. The funny thing is that every damn diagnositic tree in Toyotas manuals eventually end at "replace ECU". I've seen a million techs come up with that eventual conclusion because they either skipped steps or don't really understand whatever it is they're working through.
And as far as getting one off of ebay, realize you'll be totally liable for the repair. If the diagnosis you got is from a dealer and they are worth half a crap, if they install the ECU and it doesn't fix the problem you won't be charged for it.
I also don't see where the 2100$ came from. Are they recommending anything else? The labor on replacing that thing can't be more than a couple of hours. Are they rolling some serious diagnostic time in there or something?
In any case, jump those terminals and see what you have at least, go from there.