[katekebo]

Panic is spreading among legacy auto manufacturers. Toyota lost valuable time and will pay the price.

EV market share has been doubling every year. In 3 years, EVs will represent half of total auto sales. And all these sales will go to Tesla, BYD, and those manufacturers who have a solid lineup of EV vehicles that appeal to customers in all income ranges (for example Hyundai/KIA, VW). Any manufacturer who doesn't have at least 4-5 EV models (a compact hatchback, a small SUV, a mid-size SUV and a couple of premium/luxury models) will lose market share. There is no way around it. Toyota MUST have competitive EV lineup in 2-3 years, or they will become irrelevant. Companies that didn't invest in EV technologies are panicking.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/automakers-ev-surge-everything-everywhere-174004752.html

 

[zythr]

Darn, this would have been just what Scion needed.

 

[katekebo]

Here is another graphic that shows how pathetic Toyota situation is

 

[BlueMR280]

I more or less 100% disagree with the OP's statements. EVs as a percentage of new car sales are still a fraction of overall sales. Less than 10%. And the technology is still halfbaked and not ready for prime time. Toyota is sacrificing very very little by instead pushing hybrids (which have a bigger positive impact on CO2 reduction compared to EVs [thanks to higher adoption and lower cost]) and developing/waiting for solid state battery tech to mature.

And both of your charts are misleading if you don't show what percentage EVs are compared to ICEs. A 200% increase of a tiny market share is still a small number. But it can look convincing, and alarming, on a chart lacking perspective.

The Chinese EV industry is being fostered/pushed by the CCP. The Continental car makers are more or less being forced into EV adoption by EU political pressure. US ones less so, mostly pushes by the stock market and left side of the government. It would appear that Japan is the only region where automakers are more freely able to make their business decisions in the real world, rather than a fantasy one.

 

[katekebo]

... and I added 2022 sales, added a trend line and ma projection for next 2 years. Time to buy Tesla stock, folks.
The R-square is almost perfect, 0.99.

 

[katekebo]

I more or less 100% disagree with the OP's statements. EVs as a percentage of new car sales are still a fraction of overall sales. Less than 10%. And the technology is still halfbaked and not ready for prime time. Toyota is sacrificing very very little by instead pushing hybrids (which have a bigger positive impact on CO2 reduction compared to EVs [thanks to higher adoption and lower cost]) and developing/waiting for solid state battery tech to mature.

And both of your charts are misleading if you don't show what percentage EVs are compared to ICEs. A 200% increase of a tiny market share is still a small number. But it can look convincing, and alarming, on a chart lacking perspective.

The Chinese EV industry is being fostered/pushed by the CCP. The Continental car makers are more or less being forced into EV adoption by EU political pressure. US ones less so, mostly pushes by the stock market and left side of the government. It would appear that Japan is the only region where automakers are more freely able to make their business decisions in the real world, rather than a fantasy one.

2021 EV market share was 8.3%.
Final numbers are still coming but 2022 EV market share was well above 10%, somewhere around 13 and 14%. EV market share has been growing at about 60% year-on-year rate. It's almost certain that EV market share will hit 20% in 2023.

 

[BlueMR280]

And yet most of the low hanging fruit has already been plucked. Once all the early adopters, Greenies, rich people wanting the latest tech and people that buy EVs because of government giveaway money have bought their cars, adoption of the general public will slow down. I'm not saying market share won't continue to increase (government regulations have all but made that a certainty). I know very few (if any) people that are interested in paying premiums for EVs (over conventional vehicles).

But a lot of people are waiting for the technology to sell itself, as a superior choice over an ICE vehicle, and we're not there yet. In fact governmental push even turns some people off. Meanwhile, PHEVs, which Toyota is a leader in, make much much much more sense for all factors involved.

Good debate though

 

[katekebo]

And yet most of the low hanging fruit has already been plucked. Once all the early adopters, Greenies, rich people wanting the latest tech and people that buy EVs because of government giveaway money have bought their cars, adoption of the general public will slow down. I'm not saying market share won't continue to increase (government regulations have all but made that a certainty). I know very few (if any) people that are interested in paying premiums for EVs (over conventional vehicles).

But a lot of people are waiting for the technology to sell itself, as a superior choice over an ICE vehicle, and we're not there yet. In fact governmental push even turns some people off. Meanwhile, PHEVs, which Toyota is a leader in, make much much much more sense for all factors involved.

Good debate though

You're right about US market. But don't forget that US represents only 11% of the global auto market.

The situation is very different elsewhere. In China, which is a auto market 3 times the size of the US, it's not the rich who buy EVs. China, the largest auto market in world, has plenty of affordable EV choices, and EVs are becoming the #1 choice for 1st time car buyers. Europe is moving fast, too.

And Toyota is NOT the leader in PHEV. Have a look at the graph I posted above. Toyota is in the bottom third when in comes to PHEV, well behind BYD, VW, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes, CHJ. Again, don't assume that because Toyota is "big" in the US, the same applies to other place. The world is MUCH bigger than US.

 

[BlueMR280]

Most companies shouldn't decide their policies based on communist China. And BYD is basically communists holding their thumb down on the scale...

But you're right in that my statements are heavily biased towards North America (land of the free).

 

[katekebo]

North America (land of the free).

That is debatable. I lived many years in Europe, and in some aspects, Europeans have much more freedom than Americans. They have real democratic governments, not a two-party "duocracy". They have way more personal freedom regarding what they can do in public. Many behaviors that are perfectly acceptable in Europe will get you arrested in the US.

Most companies shouldn't decide their policies based on communist China

China is doing exactly the same thing that US did in the second half of the 20th century. Meddling in politics of other countries. Overthrowing democratically elected governments in Central and South America because they were "inconvenient" for American companies. Even staring wars on a false, fabricated pretext (remember Gulf of Tonkin?).
No country can dominate the world for long. It's payback time.

 

[bull6791]

Why doesn’t Toyota want to get into the ev game/market or do they have other ideas or plans.

 

[zythr]

That is debatable. I lived many years in Europe, and in some aspects, Europeans have much more freedom than Americans. They have real democratic governments, not a two-party "duocracy". They have way more personal freedom regarding what they can do in public. Many behaviors that are perfectly acceptable in Europe will get you arrested in the US.



China is doing exactly the same thing that US did in the second half of the 20th century. Meddling in politics of other countries. Overthrowing democratically elected governments in Central and South America because they were "inconvenient" for American companies. Even staring wars on a false, fabricated pretext (remember Gulf of Tonkin?).
No country can dominate the world for long. It's payback time.

Many places in Europe,. many residents don't own cars yet rely on either bikes, walking and/or public transit ( which is superior to what the US offers). It's eye opening to see the amount of bikes in places like Copenhagen, Stockholm and Amsterdam to name a few; heck Amsterdam even has the Canta which probably would be frowned upon and shunned in the US..

 

[katekebo]

Why doesn’t Toyota want to get into the ev game/market or do they have other ideas or plans.

Because Toyota made exactly the same mistake that GM and Ford did when Toyota and Honda brought their compacts to the US. The same mistake that Blackberry and NOKIA did about Apple's iPhone. And many examples more ...
Toyota dismissed Tesla and EVs as a small "fringe" fad that will only appeal to a small number of consumers. They lacked vision and wasted valuable time they could have used to develop EV technology. Instead, Akio Toyoda was fooling around with sport vehicles and hydrogen. And now that market is proving them wrong they are trying to catch up, hence the departure of Akio from the top position.
Toyota is currently relying heavily on BYD technology for their first generation of EVs. I wouldn't be surprised that next few EVs models that Toyota brings to the US will be actually rebadged BYD cars. Developing a new vehicle platform takes many years (5-7), and Toyota doesn't have that much time. Actually, it is quite plausible that BYD will buy Toyota in a few years, and Toyota will be just a BYD subsidiary / brand.

 

[zythr]

Because Toyota made exactly the same mistake that GM and Ford did when Toyota and Honda brought their compacts to the US. The same mistake that Blackberry and NOKIA did about Apple's iPhone. And many examples more ...
Toyota dismissed Tesla and EVs as a small "fringe" fad that will only appeal to a small number of consumers. They lacked vision and wasted valuable time they could have used to develop EV technology. Instead, Akio Toyoda was fooling around with sport vehicles and hydrogen. And now that market is proving them wrong they are trying to catch up, hence the departure of Akio from the top position.
Toyota is currently relying heavily on BYD technology for their first generation of EVs. I wouldn't be surprised that next few EVs models that Toyota brings to the US will be actually rebadged BYD cars. Developing a new vehicle platform takes many years (5-7), and Toyota doesn't have that much time. Actually, it is quite plausible that BYD will buy Toyota in a few years, and Toyota will be just a BYD subsidiary / brand.

So how will EVs work for apartment dwellers and those who rent?
Say you have an apartment that has 100 units, would each unit get their own dedicated charging station? What about homes with no garages? Historic homes? How about people who live in very cold places such as Fairbanks Alaska or Siberia?

 

[bull6791]

So Toyota is going to get into the ev game but too late. Way would byd buy Toyota. Just asking.

 

[katekebo]

So how will EVs work for apartment dwellers and those who rent?
Say you have an apartment that has 100 units, would each unit get their own dedicated charging station? What about homes with no garages? Historic homes? How about people who live in very cold places such as Fairbanks Alaska or Siberia?

Ask the Norwegians. Norway is cold, they live in apartments, and EV are 80% of new vehicle sales. Somehow they figured it out.

 

[katekebo]

So Toyota is going to get into the ev game but too late. Way would byd buy Toyota. Just asking.

Because BYD is well established brand in China, but with little presence elsewhere. On the other hand, Toyota is a valuable global brand, that would give BYD access to all those markets where Toyota is a big player already (US, Europe, Asia, Africa, Middle East, ...). BYD already has tons of money, while Toyota's market capitalization will likely shrink over the next 2-3 years, so BYD will be able to buy a controlling stake in Toyota. Similar to Haier buying General Electric appliances business including the right to use General Electric brand name.

 

[CamPoo]

I'll tell you what scares traditional automakers, that Tesla just reported $24.1 Billion in 4th quarter earnings and $3.7 billion in profit. That makes everyone else both scared and have watering mouths too.

What Tesla has achieved is not something others can do overnight. They build custom machines to makes their auto more efficiently, aimed for a lower volume break-even, have passed that by a long shot and now make nearly $6000 per vehicle profit, 7 times the average of anyone else. Others want that and will chase it to the ends of the earth. Luck all.

 

[katekebo]

I'll tell you what scares traditional automakers, that Tesla just reported $24.1 Billion in 4th quarter earnings and $3.7 billion in profit. That makes everyone else both scared and have watering mouths too.

What Tesla has achieved is not something others can do overnight. They build custom machines to makes their auto more efficiently, aimed for a lower volume break-even, have passed that by a long shot and now make nearly $6000 per vehicle profit, 7 times the average of anyone else. Others want that and will chase it to the ends of the earth. Luck all.

While Tesla was visionary, Toyota was stupid. Toyota assumed that 85% of vehicles sold in the US by 2030 will be still powered by a gasoline engine, and that the global share of EVs would be 50% by that date. They are off by at least 4 years. EVs will hit the 50% mark 3 years from now. And Toyota recently announced that they are stopping all development of vehicles based on the e-TNGA platform (derived from gas-powered TNGA), and will now develop an EV-only platform to be able to compete with Tesla. The problems is that the earliest they will be able to start selling vehicles based on this new platform is late 2027 or 2028. By then, they will lose half of the market share to Tesla, VW, Hyundai/KIA. All these manufacturers already have a dedicated EV platform.
Toyota wasted 5 years of precious time because Akio Toyoda wanted to play race driver, instead of understanding technology.

 

[pUl|]

Toyota lost valuable time and will pay the price.

Let me just say this. This kind of Doomsday prediction was made way back when hybrids were launched. Ultimately whatever tech takes the stage will depend on what the majority of consumers seek within what options are available.