Hey y'all,
Okay, I've an update...and yeah, nearly two years later. But I figured what I learned should be helpful to some others out there and minimize throwing parts at problems.
Did replace the CTS connector, and current in/out of it has been solid. Also learned that the voltage the Denso coils throw out reaches a higher maximum than the aftermarket ones (can't recall where I found that info, however), and the aftermarket rotor's contact was notably thinner than the Denso, so I bought the Denso coil and rotor and threw those into the distributor. Those changes helped very, very mildly.
An issue I'd had troubleshooting was that where I lived when I first posted, it rarely got to freezing, and so I had just a tiny window when it'd fail so I could test. I've since moved to a much colder place where it freezes all the time, and so more time to troubleshoot. First morning when it got real cold (~20 F), I got bundled up, ran out to the car to troubleshoot, turned the ignition, and - it fired up just fine. I was shocked. Warmed up fine for a while, too, but then, at a warmer engine temp than in the warmer area I lived before, it died again. After a half-dozen kinda starts (it'd catch for a few revolutions then die), it fired right up with no problems. I then tried starting it at various temperatures, and it became obvious that the problem wasn't related to engine temperature but the temperature of the engine bay.
And I got lucky - one time it failed just enough to throw back a CEL code: 14, no IGF signal.
The only thing that made sense to me at that point was that the igniter was faulty. Checked out new OEM igniters, and nearly had a heart attack at their cost ($500?!?!). Scoured through many junkyard 7A-FEs, and last week I finally, finally found one with the OEM distributor, including the igniter (albeit with 230K on it). I pulled the igniter from the distributor in my car (which I was able to do with the dist in the car, though getting to the igniter's retaining screws was brutal), and dig what I found - the aftermarket igniter's cover had detached and was just flopping around on top of the igniter (see attached photo). Put the OEM igniter in, and - problem solved. No more no starts at all, and I've fired it up in a bunch of conditions now.
So I guess this thread should go onto the distributor sticky.
Two questions for y'all. Man, I'm not sure what I'm looking at in the guts of the igniter - any of you savvy electrical guys see any problems with it? Second, would it make sense that it was just that cover flopping around causing the problems, and somehow at that narrow temperature range in the dist, some current was robbed from the igniter so it couldn't deliver the current to keep the car running? Given that my car is otherwise in very good condition, the insane cost of an igniter from Toyota, the age of the OEM igniter I got in there now, and how hard it's been to find one at the junkyard, it'd be relieving if that loose cover was the only problem with the aftermarket igniter.
Thanks for any help y'all got - and sorry for the long post!